fix(bep-caliber): rebate rate uses YTD actual voucher cumulative (571103 debit / 5001 credit), book+cash card read derived, fail-closed

backend/app/api/dashboard.py

@@ -29,16 +29,25 @@ router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/cma/dashboard", tags=["驾驶舱"],
 #  月销 = voucher_details subject 5001(主营业务收入) 贷方 YTD 月均（万元）
 #  月管理费 = 5602% 借−贷 净额 YTD 月均（carry_forward=0 行域；账面口径含折旧）
 #  折旧 = 560213 借−贷 净额 YTD 月均（同上；口径4 见 _decisions/cma-expense-profit-net-caliber-20261002.md）
-#  渠补率 = 厂家政策 84.61%（财务Bot权威口径）
+#  渠补率 = **实测累计**（Σ571103借方 ÷ Σ5001贷方，YTD）——取自派生落库值 F_BEP_REBATE（单一事实源）
 #  保本额 = 月固定成本 ÷ (1-渠补率)
+# 2026-10-02 口径修订（任总 11:43 CST 放行「改，这样数据更加真实」）：
+#   ① 渠补率不再用政策常量 84.61 参与计算，改用派生落库的实测累计值；
+#      政策常量仅作对照返回（inputs.rebate_policy_pct），**不参与计算**；
+#   ② 账面/现金两条路径**统一读派生落库值**——此前 book_bep 实时复算 voucher、
+#      cash_bep 读派生值，9 月数据入库而派生器未跑时同卡两口径不同步；
+#   ③ fail-closed：六条派生值（含渠补率）**同期齐全**才出卡；缺数 ⇒ available=False，
+#      不出保本值、不回落政策常量（不跨期回落，避免混期口径）。
 # 账面口径(含折旧) / 现金口径(剔除折旧) 双口径只读返回，无写操作。
-# 现金口径数值优先读派生KPI(F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH/F_BEP_COVER_CASH)最新落库值，无派生值时回退现算。
 BEP_CODES = ("F_BEP_REVENUE", "F_BEP_COVER", "F_BEP_GAP",
-             "F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "F_BEP_COVER_CASH")
+             "F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "F_BEP_COVER_CASH", "F_BEP_REBATE")
 BEP_BOOK_CODES = ("F_BEP_REVENUE", "F_BEP_COVER", "F_BEP_GAP")  # 账面3条必须齐全才 available
+BEP_CASH_CODES = ("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "F_BEP_COVER_CASH")
+BEP_REBATE_CODE = "F_BEP_REBATE"        # 实测渠补率派生KPI编码（卡面单一事实源）
 BEP_SALES_SUBJECT = "5001"
 BEP_ADMIN_PREFIX = "5602"
 BEP_DEP_SUBJECT = "560213"
+# 政策常量：仅作对照展示（2026-10-02 起不参与任何计算）
 BEP_REBATE_POLICY_PCT = 84.61
 
 
@@ -98,7 +107,13 @@ def get_bep_card(
     db: Session = Depends(get_db),
     entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id),
 ):
-    """本量利·保本点 卡片数据（只读，A区）——账面/现金双口径"""
+    """本量利·保本点 卡片数据（只读，A区）——账面/现金双口径
+
+    2026-10-02 口径修订（任总 11:43 CST 放行）：
+      · 渠补率 = 派生落库的**实测累计值**（F_BEP_REBATE，单一事实源）；政策常量仅对照返回；
+      · 账面 / 现金两条路径**统一读派生落库值**（不再实时复算 voucher）；
+      · fail-closed：六条派生值同期不齐（尤其缺渠补率）⇒ available=False，不出保本值、不回落常量。
+    """
     kpis = {k.kpi_code: k for k in db.query(KPIDefinition).filter(
         KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id,
         KPIDefinition.status == "active",
@@ -109,60 +124,70 @@ def get_bep_card(
         return {"available": False, "message": "BEP账面口径派生KPI未完整注册",
                 "found": list(kpis.keys()), "missing": missing_book}
 
-    # 最新派生期间与值（同派生器：source_type='derived'）；现金2条缺失不阻塞整卡
+    # 派生落库值（同派生器：source_type='derived'）——按 code × period 建表，period desc 排序
-    latest = {}
+    # ⚠️ 不过滤 actual_value IS NULL：fail-closed 落库的 pending 期（值 NULL）必须参与「最新期」判定，
-    for code in BEP_CODES:
+    #    否则卡面会悄悄跨期回落到上一期，掩盖「本期不出值」的事实。
-        if code not in kpis:
+    rows = db.query(KPIValue, KPIDefinition.kpi_code).join(
-            latest[code] = None
+        KPIDefinition, KPIDefinition.id == KPIValue.kpi_id,
-            continue
+    ).filter(
-        v = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+        KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id,
-            KPIValue.kpi_id == kpis[code].id,
+        KPIDefinition.kpi_code.in_(BEP_CODES),
-            KPIValue.source_type == "derived",
+        KPIValue.source_type == "derived",
-            KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
+        month_period_clause(KPIValue.period),
-            month_period_clause(KPIValue.period),
+    ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).all()
-        ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+
-        latest[code] = {"period": v.period, "value": v.actual_value} if v else None
+    by_code = {}  # {code: {period: value|None}}
+    for v, code in rows:
+        by_code.setdefault(code, {}).setdefault(v.period, v.actual_value)
+
+    # 卡面期 = 账面三条派生行的**最新期间**（与派生器目标期一致）
+    book_periods = sorted({p for c in BEP_BOOK_CODES for p in by_code.get(c, {})}, reverse=True)
+    if not book_periods:
+        return {"available": False, "entity_id": entity_id,
+                "message": "尚无派生值，请先运行 kpi_bep_deriver.py",
+                "rebate_policy_pct": BEP_REBATE_POLICY_PCT, "readonly": True}
+    period = book_periods[0]
+
+    # fail-closed：六条派生值（含实测渠补率）本期必须齐全，缺一条即不出保本值
+    missing_at_period = [c for c in BEP_CODES if by_code.get(c, {}).get(period) is None]
+    if missing_at_period:
+        if BEP_REBATE_CODE in missing_at_period:
+            msg = ("渠补率(实测)不可得：本期未落 F_BEP_REBATE 派生值 ⇒ 不出保本值"
+                   "（fail-closed，不回落政策常量、不跨期回落）")
+        else:
+            msg = ("本期派生值不齐 %s ⇒ 不出保本值（fail-closed，不跨期回落）"
+                   % ",".join(missing_at_period))
+        return {"available": False, "entity_id": entity_id, "period": period,
+                "message": msg, "missing_codes": missing_at_period,
+                "rebate_policy_pct": BEP_REBATE_POLICY_PCT,
+                "derived_periods": book_periods[:6], "readonly": True}
 
-    periods = [latest[c]["period"] for c in BEP_BOOK_CODES if latest[c]]
-    if not periods:
-        return {"available": False, "message": "尚无派生值，请先运行 kpi_bep_deriver.py"}
-    period = max(periods)
     year = period[:4]
     months = int(period[5:7])
     period_from = f"{year}-01"
-    period_to = period
 
-    # 输入口径（万元 / %）——与派生器一致
+    # 六条派生落库值（同期）—— 账面 / 现金两条路径同一来源，卡面不做实时复算
-    sales_avg = _bep_sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
+    d = {c: by_code[c][period] for c in BEP_CODES}
+    book_bep = float(d["F_BEP_REVENUE"])
+    book_cover = float(d["F_BEP_COVER"])
+    book_gap = float(d["F_BEP_GAP"])
+    cash_bep = float(d["F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH"])
+    cash_cover = float(d["F_BEP_COVER_CASH"])
+    cash_gap = round(100.0 - cash_cover, 1)      # 缺口 = 100 − 覆盖率（与派生器同口径）
+    rebate_pct = float(d[BEP_REBATE_CODE])       # 实测累计渠补率（单一事实源）
+    cm_pct = round(100.0 - rebate_pct, 2)
+
+    # 输入口径（万元，展示用；数值口径一律以派生落库值为准）
+    sales_avg = _bep_sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period,
                                "credit_amount", ("eq", BEP_SALES_SUBJECT)) / 10000.0 / months
-    admin_avg = _bep_sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
+    admin_avg = _bep_sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period,
                                "net", ("like", BEP_ADMIN_PREFIX)) / 10000.0 / months
-    dep_avg = _bep_sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
+    dep_avg = _bep_sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period,
                              "net", ("eq", BEP_DEP_SUBJECT)) / 10000.0 / months
-    rebate_pct = BEP_REBATE_POLICY_PCT
-    cm_pct = 100.0 - rebate_pct
-
-    # 账面口径：管理费含折旧（与派生落库值一致）
-    book_bep = round(admin_avg / (cm_pct / 100.0), 1)
-    book_cover = round(sales_avg / book_bep * 100.0, 1) if book_bep else 0.0
-    book_gap = round((book_bep - sales_avg) / book_bep * 100.0, 1) if book_bep else 0.0
-    # 现金口径：管理费-折旧；优先读派生KPI最新落库值（单一事实源），缺失时回退现算
     cash_admin = admin_avg - dep_avg
-    cash_derived_bep = latest["F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH"]["value"] if latest.get("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH") else None
-    cash_derived_cover = latest["F_BEP_COVER_CASH"]["value"] if latest.get("F_BEP_COVER_CASH") else None
-    if cash_derived_bep is not None and cash_derived_cover is not None:
-        cash_bep = cash_derived_bep
-        cash_cover = cash_derived_cover
-    else:
-        cash_bep = round(cash_admin / (cm_pct / 100.0), 1) if cash_admin > 0 else 0.0
-        cash_cover = round(sales_avg / cash_bep * 100.0, 1) if cash_bep else 0.0
-    cash_gap = round((cash_bep - sales_avg) / cash_bep * 100.0, 1) if cash_bep else 0.0
 
-    # 回显最新落库派生值（账面3条+现金2条，存在时输出）
+    # 回显六条派生落库值（同期）
-    derived = {}
+    derived = {c: {"period": period, "value": d[c]} for c in BEP_CODES}
-    for code in BEP_CODES:
-        lv = latest[code]
-        derived[code] = {"period": lv["period"], "value": lv["value"]} if lv else None
 
     cover_kpi = kpis["F_BEP_COVER"]
     book_level = _bep_level(book_cover, cover_kpi)
@@ -182,7 +207,9 @@ def get_bep_card(
             "admin_avg": round(admin_avg, 2),
             "dep_avg": round(dep_avg, 2),
             "rebate_pct": rebate_pct,
-            "cm_pct": round(cm_pct, 2),
+            "rebate_policy_pct": BEP_REBATE_POLICY_PCT,   # 政策常量：仅作对照，不参与计算
+            "rebate_source": "derived:F_BEP_REBATE(Σ571103借方÷Σ5001贷方, YTD累计)",
+            "cm_pct": cm_pct,
         },
         "book": {
             "bep_revenue": book_bep,
@@ -200,7 +227,8 @@ def get_bep_card(
             "gap_level": cash_gap_level,
         },
         "derived": derived,
-        "formula": "保本销售额 = 月固定成本 ÷ (1 − 渠补率84.61%)",
+        "data_source": "derived",   # 账面/现金同源：均读派生落库值
+        "formula": f"保本销售额 = 月固定成本 ÷ (1 − 实测渠补率{rebate_pct:.2f}%)",
         "readonly": True,
     }
 

backend/scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py

@@ -6,13 +6,20 @@
   F_BEP_GAP          保本缺口(%)         = (保本销售额-月均销售) ÷ 保本销售额 × 100 (反向: <=0绿 <=15黄 >15红)
   F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH 现金保本销售额(万元) = (月均管理费-月均折旧) ÷ 边际贡献率 (现金口径,剔除折旧560213,中性无阈值)
   F_BEP_COVER_CASH   现金保本覆盖率(%)   = 月均销售 ÷ 现金保本销售额 × 100 (正向: >=100绿 >=85黄 <85红)
+  F_BEP_REBATE       实测渠补率(%)       = Σ(571103借方) ÷ Σ(5001贷方) × 100 (YTD累计; 卡面单一事实源,无阈值)
 
 口径（与财务Bot报告一致）：
 - 销售收入: voucher_details.subject_code='5001'(主营业务收入) 贷方合计，当年1月至目标月 YTD 月均
 - 管理费:   subject_code LIKE '5602%'(管理费用，含560213折旧) 借−贷净额合计(carry_forward=0)，YTD 月均 → 账面口径
 - 折旧:     subject_code = '560213'(管理费用-折旧叶子) 借−贷净额合计(carry_forward=0)，YTD 月均 → 现金口径剔除项(eq精确匹配,防5602130误含)
-- 渠补率:   厂家政策定死 84.61% (571103渠补支出/5001销售, 1-7月累计凭证验证≈84.0%~84.6%)
+- 渠补率:   **实测累计口径**（2026-10-02 财务裁定，任总 11:43 CST 放行「改，这样数据更加真实」）
-- 边际贡献率 = 1 - 渠补率 = 15.39%
+            渠补率(实测) = Σ(571103 借方) ÷ Σ(5001 贷方) × 100，期间 = 年初至当期(YTD)，保留 2 位小数。
+            `POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT = 84.61` 政策常量**仅作对照展示**（写进返回值 rebate_policy_pct / remark），
+            **不参与任何计算**；`--rebate-rate` 显式传值时视为人工诊断覆盖（正常调用不再使用）。
+- 边际贡献率 = 100 − 渠补率(实测)
+- fail-closed 边界（2026-10-02 裁定）：某期 571103 或 5001 缺数/为 0 ⇒ **该期不出保本值**
+  （六条派生行写 actual_value=NULL + data_status='pending' + remark 注明「渠补率不可得」），
+  **不得静默回落 84.61 常量**；累计口径天然平滑单月波动（8 月单月 571103/5001=134% 不影响累计值）。
 - 目标月:   --period 显式指定；默认自动选最近「已结账」完整月（当月跳过）。
             结账信号优先：DB 损益结转凭证(carry_forward=1 & subject_code='3103') → check.md 文件；
             两者皆无时才退回旧「销售额阈值」兜底（销售低 ≠ 未结账，仅保底用，日志标注依据）
@@ -48,6 +55,8 @@ logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(me
 logger = logging.getLogger("cma.bep_deriver")
 
 # 厂家政策渠补率（定死不可谈判，财务Bot报告权威值 2026-09-08）
+# ⚠️ 2026-10-02 起**仅作对照展示**（返回值 rebate_policy_pct / remark），不参与任何计算。
+#    参与计算的渠补率 = 逐期实测累计（见 compute_rebate_rate / 文件头「渠补率」条）。
 POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT = 84.61
 
 # 派生KPI 编码 → (kpi_code, 名称)
@@ -57,8 +66,15 @@ TARGET_KPIS = [
     ("F_BEP_GAP", "保本缺口"),
     ("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "现金口径保本销售额"),
     ("F_BEP_COVER_CASH", "现金口径保本覆盖率"),
+    ("F_BEP_REBATE", "实测渠补率"),
 ]
 
+# 实测渠补率 KPI 编码（卡面单一事实源；无阈值，不参与预警级别判定）
+REBATE_KPI = "F_BEP_REBATE"
+
+# 保本口径 KPI（缺 F_BEP_REBATE 定义时不阻断派生主流程，仅跳过渠补率落库并告警）
+CORE_KPI_CODES = [c for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS if c != REBATE_KPI]
+
 # 现金口径 KPI 编码（计算路径独立于账面，remark 文案用现金口径）
 CASH_CODES = {"F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "F_BEP_COVER_CASH"}
 
@@ -161,6 +177,40 @@ def _sum_field(db, entity_id: int, period_from: str, period_to: str,
     return float(val or 0.0)
 
 
+def compute_rebate_rate(db, entity_id: int, period_from: str, period_to: str) -> dict:
+    """实测累计渠补率（2026-10-02 财务裁定口径）。
+
+    渠补率(实测) = Σ(571103 借方) ÷ Σ(5001 贷方) × 100，期间 = 年初至当期（YTD），保留 2 位小数。
+      · 571103 = 渠补/捐赠支出（损益类费用科目）⇒ 本期发生额落**借方**；
+      · 5001   = 主营业务收入 ⇒ 本期发生额落**贷方**；
+      · 行域 = carry_forward=0（与 _sum_field 一致，排除期间损益结转腿）。
+
+    返回 {'available', 'rebate_pct', 'rebate_sum_w', 'sales_sum_w', 'reason'}；
+    **fail-closed**：分子或分母缺数/为 0 ⇒ available=False, rebate_pct=None
+    （调用方不得回落政策常量，须按「渠补率不可得」处理）。
+    """
+    rebate_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
+                              "debit_amount", ("eq", REBATE_CODE)) / 10000.0
+    sales_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
+                             "credit_amount", ("eq", SALES_CODE)) / 10000.0
+    info = {
+        "rebate_sum_w": round(rebate_sum_w, 2),
+        "sales_sum_w": round(sales_sum_w, 2),
+        "available": False,
+        "rebate_pct": None,
+        "reason": "",
+    }
+    if sales_sum_w <= 0:
+        info["reason"] = "渠补率不可得：5001 贷方累计缺数或为 0"
+        return info
+    if rebate_sum_w <= 0:
+        info["reason"] = "渠补率不可得：571103 借方累计缺数或为 0"
+        return info
+    info["available"] = True
+    info["rebate_pct"] = round(rebate_sum_w / sales_sum_w * 100.0, 2)
+    return info
+
+
 def _month_sales(db, entity_id: int, period: str) -> float:
     """单月销售收入（万元）——用于目标月完整度判断"""
     return _sum_field(db, entity_id, period, period, "credit_amount",
@@ -287,17 +337,28 @@ def _eval_static_threshold(value: float, kpi) -> tuple:
     return None, None
 
 
-def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
+def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float = None,
                write_kpi: bool = True) -> dict:
-    """计算并落库五个派生KPI（账面3条+现金2条）。返回结果摘要。"""
+    """计算并落库六个派生KPI（账面3条+现金2条+实测渠补率1条）。返回结果摘要。
+
+    渠补率（2026-10-02 裁定）：默认按 YTD 从 voucher_details **现算**
+    （Σ571103借方 ÷ Σ5001贷方），政策常量 84.61% 仅作对照返回（rebate_policy_pct）。
+    显式传 rebate_rate_pct（`--rebate-rate`）时视为人工诊断覆盖。
+    fail-closed：实测渠补率不可得且无人工覆盖 ⇒ 该期不出保本值（六行 pending/NULL）。
+    """
     kpis = {k.kpi_code: k for k in db.query(KPIDefinition).filter(
         KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id,
         KPIDefinition.kpi_code.in_([c for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS]),
         KPIDefinition.status == "active",
     ).all()}
-    missing = [c for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS if c not in kpis]
+    missing = [c for c in CORE_KPI_CODES if c not in kpis]
     if missing:
         raise RuntimeError(f"entity={entity_id} 缺少派生KPI定义: {missing}")
+    if REBATE_KPI not in kpis:
+        # 渠补率定义缺失不阻断保本主流程（部署顺序容错），但必须显式告警：
+        # 卡面此时取不到 rebate_pct（单一事实源缺失），需尽快补 bep_kpi_defs_rebate SQL。
+        logger.error("entity=%s 缺少 %s 定义（见 scripts/sql/bep_kpi_defs_rebate_20261002.sql）；"
+                     "本期跳过实测渠补率落库，卡面将判「渠补率不可得」", entity_id, REBATE_KPI)
 
     year = period[:4]
     period_from = f"{year}-01"
@@ -307,7 +368,6 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
     # 1. 取数（元 → 万元）
     sales_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, "credit_amount", ("eq", SALES_CODE)) / 10000.0
     admin_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, "net", ("like", ADMIN_PREFIX)) / 10000.0
-    rebate_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, "net", ("eq", REBATE_CODE)) / 10000.0
     dep_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, "net", ("eq", DEP_SUBJECT)) / 10000.0
 
     sales_avg = sales_sum_w / months
@@ -315,11 +375,22 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
     dep_avg = dep_sum_w / months
     cash_admin_avg = admin_avg - dep_avg  # 现金口径固定成本（剔除折旧纸面费用）
 
-    # 2. 渠补率：厂家政策值优先，日志附凭证累计校验
+    # 2. 渠补率：默认逐期实测累计（不再取政策常量；常量仅对照）
-    calc_rebate = (rebate_sum_w / sales_sum_w * 100.0) if sales_sum_w > 0 else 0.0
+    rebate_info = compute_rebate_rate(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to)
-    if rebate_rate_pct is None:
+    calc_pct = rebate_info["rebate_pct"]
-        rebate_rate_pct = POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT
+    if rebate_rate_pct is not None:
-    cm_pct = 100.0 - rebate_rate_pct  # 边际贡献率(%)
+        rebate_info = dict(rebate_info, available=True, rebate_pct=round(float(rebate_rate_pct), 2),
+                           reason="人工覆盖（--rebate-rate）")
+        logger.warning("渠补率使用人工覆盖值 %.2f%%（YTD 实算值 %s）", rebate_rate_pct,
+                       ("%.2f%%" % calc_pct) if calc_pct is not None else "不可得")
+    elif not rebate_info["available"]:
+        # fail-closed：不出保本值，绝不静默回落政策常量 84.61
+        logger.error("period=%s %s ⇒ 本期不出保本值（fail-closed，不回落政策常量）",
+                     period, rebate_info["reason"])
+        return _fail_closed_rebate_unavailable(db, entity_id, period, months, rebate_info, kpis, write_kpi)
+
+    rebate_pct = rebate_info["rebate_pct"]
+    cm_pct = 100.0 - rebate_pct  # 边际贡献率(%) = 100 − 实测渠补率
 
     # 3. 派生计算（万元 / %）——账面3条路径不变；现金口径在账面基础上剔除折旧
     bep = admin_avg / (cm_pct / 100.0) if cm_pct > 0 else 0.0
@@ -334,6 +405,7 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
         "F_BEP_GAP": round(gap, 1),
         "F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH": round(cash_bep, 1),
         "F_BEP_COVER_CASH": round(cash_cover, 1),
+        "F_BEP_REBATE": round(rebate_pct, 2),
     }
 
     # 4. upsert kpi_values (source_type='derived'，幂等)
@@ -342,12 +414,21 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
     value_rows = {}
     changed = []
     for code, _ in TARGET_KPIS:
-        kpi = kpis[code]
+        kpi = kpis.get(code)
-        if code in CASH_CODES:
+        if kpi is None:  # 定义缺失（仅可能为 F_BEP_REBATE，见上方告警）
+            written[code] = "no-definition"
+            continue
+        if code == REBATE_KPI:
+            remark = (f"实测渠补率(YTD累计): Σ571103借方 {rebate_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 ÷ "
+                      f"Σ5001贷方 {rebate_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 × 100 = {rebate_pct:.2f}%"
+                      f"（政策常量 {POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}% 仅供对照，不参与计算）")
+        elif code in CASH_CODES:
             remark = (f"现金口径: 管理费月均{admin_avg:.2f}万-折旧月均{dep_avg:.2f}万"
-                      f"=固定现金{cash_admin_avg:.2f}万 ÷ 边际贡献率{cm_pct:.2f}% → 保本{cash_bep:.2f}万")
+                      f"=固定现金{cash_admin_avg:.2f}万 ÷ 边际贡献率{cm_pct:.2f}% → 保本{cash_bep:.2f}万"
+                      f"（实测渠补率{rebate_pct:.2f}%）")
         else:
-            remark = f"保本派生器: 销售月均{sales_avg:.1f}万/管理费月均{admin_avg:.1f}万/渠补率{rebate_rate_pct:.2f}%"
+            remark = (f"保本派生器: 销售月均{sales_avg:.1f}万/管理费月均{admin_avg:.1f}万/"
+                      f"实测渠补率{rebate_pct:.2f}%(政策{POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}%仅对照)")
         existing = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
             KPIValue.period == period,
@@ -437,6 +518,7 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
         "entity_id": entity_id,
         "period": period,
         "months": months,
+        "data_status": "ok",
         "sales_sum_w": round(sales_sum_w, 2),
         "sales_avg": round(sales_avg, 2),
         "admin_sum_w": round(admin_sum_w, 2),
@@ -444,9 +526,12 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
         "dep_sum_w": round(dep_sum_w, 2),
         "dep_avg": round(dep_avg, 2),
         "cash_admin_avg": round(cash_admin_avg, 2),
-        "rebate_sum_w": round(rebate_sum_w, 2),
+        "rebate_sum_w": rebate_info["rebate_sum_w"],
-        "rebate_policy_pct": rebate_rate_pct,
+        "rebate_sales_base_w": rebate_info["sales_sum_w"],
-        "rebate_calc_pct": round(calc_rebate, 2),
+        "rebate_actual_pct": rebate_pct,
+        "rebate_policy_pct": POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT,
+        "rebate_source": rebate_info.get("reason") or "YTD实测累计(Σ571103借方/Σ5001贷方)",
+        "rebate_calc_pct": round(calc_pct, 2) if calc_pct is not None else None,
         "cm_pct": round(cm_pct, 2),
         "values": values,
         "written": written,
@@ -454,12 +539,77 @@ def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float,
     }
 
 
+def _fail_closed_rebate_unavailable(db, entity_id: int, period: str, months: int,
+                                    rebate_info: dict, kpis: dict,
+                                    write_kpi: bool) -> dict:
+    """fail-closed 落库：实测渠补率不可得 ⇒ 该期不出保本值。
+
+    六条派生行写 actual_value=NULL + data_status='pending' + remark 注明「渠补率不可得」，
+    **不回落**政策常量 84.61（2026-10-02 财务裁定 / 任总 11:43 CST 放行）。
+    不评估阈值、不产生/解除预警（无值 ⇒ 无级别可评）。
+    """
+    reason = rebate_info["reason"] or "渠补率不可得"
+    detail = (f"{reason}；Σ571103借方 {rebate_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 / "
+              f"Σ5001贷方 {rebate_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 ⇒ 本期不出保本值（fail-closed，"
+              f"不回落政策常量 {POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}%）")
+    batch = f"bep-{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}"
+    written = {}
+    if write_kpi:
+        for code, _ in TARGET_KPIS:
+            kpi = kpis.get(code)
+            if kpi is None:
+                written[code] = "no-definition"
+                continue
+            existing = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+                KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
+                KPIValue.period == period,
+                KPIValue.source_type == "derived",
+            ).first()
+            if existing is None:
+                db.add(KPIValue(
+                    entity_id=entity_id,
+                    kpi_id=kpi.id,
+                    period=period,
+                    actual_value=None,
+                    source_type="derived",
+                    source_batch=batch,
+                    data_status="pending",
+                    remark=detail,
+                ))
+                written[code] = "insert"
+            else:
+                existing.actual_value = None
+                existing.source_batch = batch
+                existing.data_status = "pending"
+                existing.remark = detail
+                written[code] = "upsert"
+        db.commit()
+    else:
+        written = {c: "dry-run" for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS}
+    return {
+        "entity_id": entity_id,
+        "period": period,
+        "months": months,
+        "data_status": "pending",
+        "rebate_unavailable": True,
+        "reason": detail,
+        "sales_sum_w": rebate_info["sales_sum_w"],
+        "rebate_sum_w": rebate_info["rebate_sum_w"],
+        "rebate_actual_pct": None,
+        "rebate_policy_pct": POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT,
+        "rebate_source": reason,
+        "values": {},
+        "written": written,
+        "value_changed": [],
+    }
+
+
 def main():
     ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="保本点派生KPI执行器")
     ap.add_argument("--period", default=None, help="目标期间 YYYY-MM（默认自动选最近完整月）")
     ap.add_argument("--entity", type=int, default=1, help="entity_id（默认1=陕西酣客）")
     ap.add_argument("--rebate-rate", type=float, default=None,
-                    help="渠补率%覆盖（默认厂家政策84.61）")
+                    help="渠补率%%人工覆盖（诊断用；**默认按 YTD 从 voucher_details 实测现算**，不再取政策常量）")
     ap.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true", help="只计算不落库")
     args = ap.parse_args()
 
@@ -469,18 +619,24 @@ def main():
         r = run_derive(db, args.entity, period, args.rebate_rate,
                        write_kpi=not args.dry_run)
         print(f"保本点派生计算完成 entity={r['entity_id']} period={r['period']} "
-              f"(YTD {r['months']}个月) mode={'dry-run' if args.dry_run else 'write'}")
+              f"(YTD {r['months']}个月) mode={'dry-run' if args.dry_run else 'write'} "
+              f"data_status={r['data_status']}")
+        if r["data_status"] == "pending":
+            print(f"  ⚠ fail-closed：{r['reason']}")
+            print(f"  落库: {r['written']}")
+            return
         print(f"  销售收入累计 {r['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 月均 {r['sales_avg']:.2f}万")
         print(f"  管理费累计 {r['admin_sum_w']:.2f}万 月均 {r['admin_avg']:.2f}万 (含折旧,账面口径)")
         print(f"  折旧累计 {r['dep_sum_w']:.2f}万 月均 {r['dep_avg']:.2f}万 (560213) | "
               f"现金固定成本月均 {r['cash_admin_avg']:.2f}万 (管理费-折旧)")
-        print(f"  渠补支出累计 {r['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 | 渠补率: 政策{r['rebate_policy_pct']:.2f}% "
+        print(f"  渠补支出累计 {r['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 | 实测渠补率(YTD) {r['rebate_actual_pct']:.2f}% "
-              f"(凭证累计校验 {r['rebate_calc_pct']:.2f}%) | 边际贡献率 {r['cm_pct']:.2f}%")
+              f"| 政策常量 {r['rebate_policy_pct']:.2f}% (仅对照) | 边际贡献率 {r['cm_pct']:.2f}%")
         print(f"  F_BEP_REVENUE 保本销售额 = {r['values']['F_BEP_REVENUE']} 万元")
         print(f"  F_BEP_COVER   保本覆盖率 = {r['values']['F_BEP_COVER']} %")
         print(f"  F_BEP_GAP     保本缺口   = {r['values']['F_BEP_GAP']} %")
         print(f"  F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH 现金保本销售额 = {r['values']['F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH']} 万元")
         print(f"  F_BEP_COVER_CASH   现金保本覆盖率 = {r['values']['F_BEP_COVER_CASH']} %")
+        print(f"  F_BEP_REBATE       实测渠补率     = {r['values']['F_BEP_REBATE']} %")
         print(f"  落库: {r['written']}")
     finally:
         db.close()

backend/scripts/sql/bep_kpi_defs_rebate_20261002.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+-- CMA BEP 实测渠补率派生KPI定义 — F_BEP_REBATE（2026-10-02）
+-- 口径: 渠补率(实测) = Σ(571103 借方) ÷ Σ(5001 贷方) × 100，期间 = 年初至当期(YTD)，2位小数
+--   依据: 财务Bot 2026-10-02 裁定（任总 11:43 CST 放行「改，这样数据更加真实」）
+--   政策常量 84.61% 自本日起仅作对照展示，不再参与计算
+-- 幂等: NOT EXISTS 守卫，可安全重跑
+INSERT INTO kpi_definitions
+(entity_id, kpi_code, kpi_name, dimension, category, formula, formula_desc,
+ data_source_type, data_source, data_owner, frequency, unit, target_value,
+ target_calc_type, threshold_green, threshold_yellow, threshold_red,
+ kpi_level, status, bot_source, epic, created_by)
+SELECT 1, 'F_BEP_REBATE', '实测渠补率', 'finance', 'profitability',
+ 'round(sum(571103借方)/sum(5001贷方)*100,2)',
+ '渠补率(实测,YTD累计)=Σ571103借方÷Σ5001贷方; 供保本点卡面单一事实源; 政策常量84.61%仅对照; 缺数期不出值(fail-closed)',
+ 'derived', 'BEP派生器 kpi_bep_deriver.py(voucher_details 571103/5001 累计)', '财务部', 'monthly', '%', NULL,
+ 'ratio', NULL, NULL, NULL,
+ 'strategic', 'active', 'finance-bot', 'Epic2', 1
+FROM DUAL
+WHERE NOT EXISTS (
+  SELECT 1 FROM kpi_definitions WHERE entity_id = 1 AND kpi_code = 'F_BEP_REBATE'
+);

backend/tests/test_bep_rebate_actual_caliber.py

@@ -0,0 +1,347 @@
+"""BEP 渠补率改「实测累计」口径 单测 — finance-20261002-bep-rebate-actual-caliber-fullstack
+
+口径依据（财务Bot 2026-10-02 裁定，任总 11:43 CST 放行「改，这样数据更加真实」）：
+  渠补率(实测) = Σ(571103 **借方**) ÷ Σ(5001 **贷方**) × 100，期间 = 年初至当期(YTD)，2 位小数；
+  政策常量 84.61% **仅作对照展示**，不参与任何计算；
+  fail-closed：571103 或 5001 缺数/为 0 ⇒ 该期**不出保本值**（pending + NULL），不静默回落常量。
+
+覆盖两面：
+  · scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py  —— 派生落库写入面（去常量、YTD 现算、fail-closed）
+  · app/api/dashboard.py::/bep-card —— 卡面读取面（rebate_pct 读派生值、book/cash 同源读派生值）
+
+夹具数值刻意复刻财务复算口径，使「改前(84.61%常量) / 改后(85.49%实测)」两套输出可逐项区分：
+  2026-01..07：Σ5001贷 = 794.35 万 ｜ Σ571103借 = 672.10 万 ⇒ 渠补率 84.61%（= 常量，故该期值不变）
+  2026-01..08：Σ5001贷 = 808.79 万 ｜ Σ571103借 = 691.43 万 ⇒ 渠补率 85.49%
+  月均管理费(含折旧) 25.774 万 / 现金固定成本月均 18.2605 万（8 个月）
+  ⇒ 改前(15.39%)：保本 167.5 / 118.7，覆盖 60.4% / 85.2%
+  ⇒ 改后(14.51%)：保本 177.6 / 125.8，覆盖 56.9% / 80.3%
+"""
+import datetime
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import tempfile
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+# 值变复核提示件默认落 finance 的 _reports/；测试期重定向到临时目录（防污染对端 profile）
+os.environ["BEP_REVIEW_NOTE_DIR"] = tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="bep-test-review-notes-")
+
+import pytest  # noqa: E402
+
+from app.models import KPIDefinition, KPIValue, VoucherDetail  # noqa: E402
+from app.api.dashboard import get_bep_card  # noqa: E402
+from scripts import kpi_bep_deriver as D  # noqa: E402
+
+ENTITY = 1
+D_DATE_07 = datetime.datetime(2026, 7, 31)
+D_DATE_08 = datetime.datetime(2026, 8, 31)
+
+# ── 财务复算锚值（单位：元）────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# 2026-01..07 累计
+M07 = dict(period="2026-07", d=D_DATE_07,
+           sales=7943500.0, rebate=6721000.0, admin_other=1307810.0, dep=526050.0)
+# 2026-08 单月增量（累计口径 01..08 = M07 + M08）
+M08 = dict(period="2026-08", d=D_DATE_08,
+           sales=144400.0, rebate=193300.0, admin_other=153030.0, dep=75030.0)
+
+KPI_CODES = (
+    ("F_BEP_REVENUE", "保本销售额", "万元", None, None, None),
+    ("F_BEP_COVER", "保本覆盖率", "%", ">=100", ">=85", "<85"),
+    ("F_BEP_GAP", "保本缺口", "%", "<=0", "<=15", ">15"),
+    ("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "现金口径保本销售额", "万元", None, None, None),
+    ("F_BEP_COVER_CASH", "现金口径保本覆盖率", "%", ">=100", ">=85", "<85"),
+    ("F_BEP_REBATE", "实测渠补率", "%", None, None, None),
+)
+
+_seq = [700000]
+
+
+def _voucher(db, row, subject_code, debit=0.0, credit=0.0, cf=0):
+    _seq[0] += 1
+    db.add(VoucherDetail(entity_id=ENTITY, voucher_no=str(_seq[0]),
+                         voucher_date=row["d"], subject_code=subject_code,
+                         subject_name="单测科目", debit_amount=debit,
+                         credit_amount=credit, summary="渠补率口径单测",
+                         carry_forward=cf, period=row["period"]))
+    db.flush()
+
+
+def _month_rows(db, row, rebate_credit=0.0):
+    """一个月的凭证行：收入(5001贷) / 渠补(571103借) / 管理费(5602% 含折旧 560213)"""
+    _voucher(db, row, "5001", credit=row["sales"])
+    if row["rebate"] is not None:
+        _voucher(db, row, "571103", debit=row["rebate"])   # 含显式 0 行（「存在但为 0」负例）
+        # 571103 贷方冲销行（负对照：证明实现走**借方**口径而非净额）
+        if rebate_credit:
+            _voucher(db, row, "571103", credit=rebate_credit)
+    _voucher(db, row, "560201", debit=row["admin_other"])   # 管理费其他明细
+    _voucher(db, row, "560213", debit=row["dep"])           # 管理费用-折旧（含在 5602% 内）
+
+
+def _kpi_defs(db, include_rebate=True):
+    for code, name, unit, g, y, r in KPI_CODES:
+        if code == "F_BEP_REBATE" and not include_rebate:
+            continue
+        db.add(KPIDefinition(entity_id=ENTITY, kpi_code=code, kpi_name=name,
+                             dimension="finance", category="profitability",
+                             formula="单测", data_source="单测夹具", data_owner="财务部",
+                             frequency="monthly", unit=unit,
+                             threshold_green=g, threshold_yellow=y, threshold_red=r,
+                             kpi_level="strategic", status="active"))
+    db.flush()
+
+
+def _fixture_01_08(db, rebate_credit=0.0):
+    _kpi_defs(db)
+    _month_rows(db, M07)
+    _month_rows(db, M08, rebate_credit=rebate_credit)
+    db.flush()
+
+
+def _derived_rows(db, period="2026-08"):
+    out = {}
+    for code, *_ in KPI_CODES:
+        kpi = db.query(KPIDefinition).filter(KPIDefinition.entity_id == ENTITY,
+                                             KPIDefinition.kpi_code == code).first()
+        if kpi is None:
+            continue
+        v = db.query(KPIValue).filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
+                                      KPIValue.period == period,
+                                      KPIValue.source_type == "derived").first()
+        if v is not None:
+            out[code] = v
+    return out
+
+
+# ── 一、派生器：实测累计口径 ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def test_compute_rebate_rate_uses_ytd_actual(db):
+    """实测渠补率 = Σ571103借方 ÷ Σ5001贷方（YTD 累计，2 位小数）"""
+    _fixture_01_08(db)
+    info_07 = D.compute_rebate_rate(db, ENTITY, "2026-01", "2026-07")
+    info_08 = D.compute_rebate_rate(db, ENTITY, "2026-01", "2026-08")
+    assert info_07["available"] is True
+    assert abs(info_07["rebate_pct"] - 84.61) < 0.005, info_07
+    assert abs(info_07["rebate_sum_w"] - 672.10) < 0.01, info_07
+    assert abs(info_07["sales_sum_w"] - 794.35) < 0.01, info_07
+    assert info_08["available"] is True
+    assert abs(info_08["rebate_pct"] - 85.49) < 0.005, info_08
+
+
+def test_deriver_debit_side_negative_control(db):
+    """571103 取**借方**而非净额（负对照）：夹具含 10 万贷方冲销行。
+
+    若实现退回「净额」口径 ⇒ 渠补率 = (691.43-10)/808.79 = 84.25% ≠ 85.49%，本用例必红。
+    """
+    _fixture_01_08(db, rebate_credit=100000.0)
+    info = D.compute_rebate_rate(db, ENTITY, "2026-01", "2026-08")
+    assert abs(info["rebate_pct"] - 85.49) < 0.005, info
+    net_w = D._sum_field(db, ENTITY, "2026-01", "2026-08", "net", ("eq", D.REBATE_CODE)) / 10000.0
+    assert abs(net_w - 681.43) < 0.01, net_w          # 净额口径 = 691.43 − 10
+    assert net_w != info["rebate_sum_w"]              # 两种口径在本夹具下必然不同
+
+
+def test_deriver_2026_08_values_follow_actual_rebate(db):
+    """派生器落库：改后 177.6 / 125.8 / 56.9 / 80.3，渠补率 85.49（政策常量仅对照）"""
+    _fixture_01_08(db)
+    r = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+    assert r["data_status"] == "ok", r
+    assert abs(r["rebate_actual_pct"] - 85.49) < 0.005, r
+    assert r["rebate_policy_pct"] == 84.61                  # 常量保留（仅对照）
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE"] - 177.6) < 0.05, r["values"]
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH"] - 125.8) < 0.05, r["values"]
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_COVER"] - 56.9) < 0.05, r["values"]
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_COVER_CASH"] - 80.3) < 0.05, r["values"]
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_REBATE"] - 85.49) < 0.005, r["values"]
+    # 边界外反证：若仍吃常量 84.61（旧口径）= 167.5 / 118.7
+    assert r["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE"] != 167.5, r["values"]
+
+    rows = _derived_rows(db, "2026-08")
+    assert set(rows) == {c for c, *_ in KPI_CODES}, sorted(rows)
+    assert abs(float(rows["F_BEP_REBATE"].actual_value) - 85.49) < 0.005
+    assert "571103" in rows["F_BEP_REBATE"].remark and "政策常量" in rows["F_BEP_REBATE"].remark
+
+
+def test_deriver_2026_07_unchanged_regression(db):
+    """回归：1-7 月实测渠补率恰为 84.61% ⇒ 与政策常量路径逐项等值（170.2 / 121.4）"""
+    _kpi_defs(db)
+    _month_rows(db, M07)
+    db.flush()
+    r_auto = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-07", None, write_kpi=True)
+    r_policy = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-07", 84.61, write_kpi=True)
+    assert abs(r_auto["rebate_actual_pct"] - 84.61) < 0.005, r_auto
+    assert r_auto["values"] == r_policy["values"], (r_auto["values"], r_policy["values"])
+    assert abs(r_auto["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE"] - 170.2) < 0.05, r_auto["values"]
+    assert abs(r_auto["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH"] - 121.4) < 0.05, r_auto["values"]
+    assert abs(r_auto["values"]["F_BEP_COVER"] - 66.7) < 0.05, r_auto["values"]
+    assert abs(r_auto["values"]["F_BEP_COVER_CASH"] - 93.5) < 0.05, r_auto["values"]
+
+
+def test_deriver_policy_constant_not_used(db):
+    """政策常量不参与计算（负对照）：渠补率 50% ⇒ 保本 = 月固定成本 ÷ 50%，而非 ÷ 15.39%"""
+    _kpi_defs(db)
+    row = dict(period="2026-08", d=D_DATE_08, sales=8000000.0, rebate=4000000.0,
+               admin_other=800000.0, dep=0.0)
+    _month_rows(db, row)
+    db.flush()
+    r = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=False)
+    assert abs(r["rebate_actual_pct"] - 50.0) < 0.005, r
+    # admin_avg = 80万/8个月 = 10 万 ⇒ 10/0.5 = 20.0 万（常量口径会是 10/0.1539 = 65.0 万）
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE"] - 20.0) < 0.05, r["values"]
+    assert abs(r["values"]["F_BEP_REVENUE"] - 65.0) > 0.5, r["values"]
+
+
+# ── 二、派生器：fail-closed（缺数/为 0 不出值、不回落常量）─────────────────
+
+def test_deriver_fail_closed_when_rebate_missing(db):
+    _kpi_defs(db)
+    r07 = dict(M07)
+    r07["rebate"] = None                       # 全年 571103 完全缺数
+    r08 = dict(M08)
+    r08["rebate"] = None
+    _month_rows(db, r07)
+    _month_rows(db, r08)
+    db.flush()
+    r = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+    assert r["data_status"] == "pending", r
+    assert r["rebate_actual_pct"] is None, r
+    assert "渠补率不可得" in r["reason"], r
+    rows = _derived_rows(db, "2026-08")
+    assert set(rows) == {c for c, *_ in KPI_CODES}, sorted(rows)
+    for code, v in rows.items():
+        assert v.actual_value is None, (code, v.actual_value)          # 不出保本值
+        assert v.data_status == "pending", (code, v.data_status)
+        assert "渠补率不可得" in (v.remark or ""), (code, v.remark)
+    assert rows["F_BEP_REVENUE"].actual_value != 167.5                 # 未回落常量口径
+
+
+def test_deriver_fail_closed_when_rebate_zero(db):
+    """571103 存在但合计为 0 ⇒ 同样 fail-closed（不得静默回落 84.61）"""
+    _kpi_defs(db)
+    r07 = dict(M07)
+    r07["rebate"] = 0.0                        # 显式 0 行
+    r08 = dict(M08)
+    r08["rebate"] = 0.0
+    _month_rows(db, r07)
+    _month_rows(db, r08)
+    db.flush()
+    r = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+    assert r["data_status"] == "pending", r
+    assert r["rebate_sum_w"] == 0.0, r
+    rows = _derived_rows(db, "2026-08")
+    assert rows["F_BEP_REVENUE"].actual_value is None
+    assert rows["F_BEP_REVENUE"].data_status == "pending"
+
+
+# ── 三、卡面 /bep-card：rebate_pct 读派生值 + book/cash 同源 ───────────────
+
+def test_card_reads_derived_values_and_rebate_pct(db):
+    _fixture_01_08(db)
+    D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+
+    card = get_bep_card(db=db, entity_id=ENTITY)
+    assert card["available"] is True, card
+    assert card["period"] == "2026-08", card
+    assert abs(card["inputs"]["rebate_pct"] - 85.49) < 0.005, card["inputs"]
+    assert card["inputs"]["rebate_policy_pct"] == 84.61, card["inputs"]
+    assert abs(card["inputs"]["cm_pct"] - 14.51) < 0.005, card["inputs"]
+    assert abs(card["book"]["bep_revenue"] - 177.6) < 0.05, card["book"]
+    assert abs(card["book"]["cover"] - 56.9) < 0.05, card["book"]
+    assert abs(card["cash"]["bep_revenue"] - 125.8) < 0.05, card["cash"]
+    assert abs(card["cash"]["cover"] - 80.3) < 0.05, card["cash"]
+    assert card["data_source"] == "derived"
+
+
+def test_card_book_and_cash_both_read_derived_rows(db):
+    """book / cash 同源回归：直接改库内派生值，两条路径都必须随之变（不再实时复算 voucher）"""
+    _fixture_01_08(db)
+    D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+    first = get_bep_card(db=db, entity_id=ENTITY)
+    assert abs(first["book"]["bep_revenue"] - 177.6) < 0.05
+    assert abs(first["cash"]["bep_revenue"] - 125.8) < 0.05
+
+    # 临时改库内派生值（夹具库，非生产）——两路径应同步跟随
+    for code, new_val in (("F_BEP_REVENUE", 999.9), ("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", 888.8),
+                          ("F_BEP_REBATE", 60.0)):
+        kpi = db.query(KPIDefinition).filter(KPIDefinition.entity_id == ENTITY,
+                                             KPIDefinition.kpi_code == code).first()
+        row = db.query(KPIValue).filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
+                                        KPIValue.period == "2026-08",
+                                        KPIValue.source_type == "derived").first()
+        row.actual_value = new_val
+    db.commit()
+
+    second = get_bep_card(db=db, entity_id=ENTITY)
+    assert abs(second["book"]["bep_revenue"] - 999.9) < 0.001, second["book"]
+    assert abs(second["cash"]["bep_revenue"] - 888.8) < 0.001, second["cash"]
+    assert abs(second["inputs"]["rebate_pct"] - 60.0) < 0.001, second["inputs"]
+    assert abs(second["inputs"]["cm_pct"] - 40.0) < 0.001, second["inputs"]
+    # 反证：实时复算渠道（voucher 现值 177.6）不得再决定卡面值
+    assert abs(second["book"]["bep_revenue"] - 177.6) > 1.0
+
+
+def test_card_fail_closed_when_derived_rebate_absent(db):
+    """派生渠补率不可得 ⇒ 卡面不出保本值（available=False），不回落常量、不跨期回落"""
+    _kpi_defs(db)
+    _month_rows(db, M07)
+    _month_rows(db, M08)
+    db.flush()
+    # 1) 07 期正常派生（当时 571103 数据齐全）
+    r07 = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-07", None, write_kpi=True)
+    assert r07["data_status"] == "ok"
+    # 2) 全年 571103 缺数 ⇒ 08 期 fail-closed（已落 07 值不动）
+    db.query(VoucherDetail).filter(
+        VoucherDetail.entity_id == ENTITY,
+        VoucherDetail.subject_code == "571103",
+    ).delete(synchronize_session=False)
+    db.commit()
+    r08 = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+    assert r08["data_status"] == "pending", r08
+
+    card = get_bep_card(db=db, entity_id=ENTITY)
+    # 08 期六条不齐（渠补率 NULL）⇒ 卡面不得跨期回落到 07 期，也不得回落常量
+    assert card["available"] is False, card
+    assert card["period"] == "2026-08", card
+    assert "渠补率" in card["message"], card
+    assert card.get("rebate_policy_pct") == 84.61, card
+    assert "book" not in card
+
+
+# ── 四、验收探针（自测判别力）：同一用例在改前 / 改后两树上跑 ────────────────
+# 只依赖两版共有的 API（run_derive 返回的 values / get_bep_card），故可在 HEAD 快照树上复跑：
+#   改前（政策常量 84.61%）⇒ FAIL，且失败信息里出现 167.5 / 118.7
+#   改后（实测 85.49%）    ⇒ PASS，输出 177.6 / 125.8 / 56.9 / 80.3 / rebate_pct 85.49
+def test_acceptance_probe_2026_08(db):
+    """验收探针：2026-08 口径数值（财务复算预告逐项比对）"""
+    _fixture_01_08(db)
+    r = D.run_derive(db, ENTITY, "2026-08", None, write_kpi=True)
+    vals = r.get("values", {})
+    card = get_bep_card(db=db, entity_id=ENTITY)
+    obs = {
+        "deriver.F_BEP_REVENUE": vals.get("F_BEP_REVENUE"),
+        "deriver.F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH": vals.get("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH"),
+        "deriver.F_BEP_COVER": vals.get("F_BEP_COVER"),
+        "deriver.F_BEP_COVER_CASH": vals.get("F_BEP_COVER_CASH"),
+        "deriver.F_BEP_REBATE": vals.get("F_BEP_REBATE"),
+        "card.available": card.get("available"),
+        "card.inputs.rebate_pct": (card.get("inputs") or {}).get("rebate_pct"),
+        "card.inputs.rebate_policy_pct": (card.get("inputs") or {}).get("rebate_policy_pct"),
+        "card.book.bep_revenue": (card.get("book") or {}).get("bep_revenue"),
+        "card.book.cover": (card.get("book") or {}).get("cover"),
+        "card.cash.bep_revenue": (card.get("cash") or {}).get("bep_revenue"),
+        "card.cash.cover": (card.get("cash") or {}).get("cover"),
+    }
+    print("\n[ACCEPTANCE-PROBE] " + json.dumps(obs, ensure_ascii=False))
+    checks = [
+        ("deriver.F_BEP_REVENUE", obs["deriver.F_BEP_REVENUE"], 177.6, 0.2),
+        ("deriver.F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", obs["deriver.F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH"], 125.8, 0.2),
+        ("deriver.F_BEP_COVER", obs["deriver.F_BEP_COVER"], 56.9, 0.3),
+        ("deriver.F_BEP_COVER_CASH", obs["deriver.F_BEP_COVER_CASH"], 80.3, 0.3),
+        ("card.book.bep_revenue", obs["card.book.bep_revenue"], 177.6, 0.2),
+        ("card.cash.bep_revenue", obs["card.cash.bep_revenue"], 125.8, 0.2),
+        ("card.inputs.rebate_pct", obs["card.inputs.rebate_pct"], 85.49, 0.02),
+    ]
+    for name, got, want, tol in checks:
+        assert got is not None, f"{name}: got None, want {want}±{tol}"
+        assert abs(float(got) - want) <= tol, f"{name}: got {got}, want {want}±{tol}"