diff --git a/backend/app/api/alert_rules.py b/backend/app/api/alert_rules.py
index c80233b4..d26028d3 100644
--- a/backend/app/api/alert_rules.py
+++ b/backend/app/api/alert_rules.py
@@ -18,6 +18,9 @@ from app.utils.oplog import log_op
 # 裁定 R1（2026-09-19 财务口径）：demo 账套不参与预警生成/遍历（单一事实源）
 # 裁定 R5（2026-09-19 财务口径）：期间非规整月 YYYY-MM → 该 kpi_alerts 行不入库（生成侧守卫）
 from app.utils.alert_entity_scope import guard_alert_period, is_excluded_entity
+# 「实测区 / 预估区」分区口径（财务裁定 2026-10-02）：**预估行禁作预警依据**——
+# 本文件的取数读路径一律加 actual_only_clause()，动态阈值白名单去掉 estimated。
+from app.utils.kpi_value_scope import actual_only_clause
 
 logger = logging.getLogger("alert_rules")
 
@@ -317,11 +320,12 @@ def run_all_alert_checks(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends
                         alerts_generated += 1
                 continue
 
-            # 获取最新值
+            # 获取最新值（仅实测区：预估行禁作预警依据，财务裁定 2026-10-02）
             latest_value = value_cache.get(rule.kpi_id)
             if latest_value is None:
                 latest_value = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
                     KPIValue.kpi_id == rule.kpi_id,
+                    actual_only_clause(),
                 ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).first()
                 if latest_value:
                     value_cache[rule.kpi_id] = latest_value
@@ -410,7 +414,8 @@ def calculate_dynamic_thresholds(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int =
         values = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
             KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
-            KPIValue.data_status.in_(["verified", "estimated"]),
+            # 白名单去掉 estimated（财务裁定 2026-10-02）：预估行不参与动态阈值计算
+            KPIValue.data_status.in_(["verified"]),
             KPIValue.period < current_period,
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).limit(3).all()
         
@@ -521,10 +526,11 @@ def _check_trend(kpi_id: int, value: float, direction: str, params: dict, db: Se
     """趋势检查 — 环比变化"""
     threshold_pct = params.get("threshold_pct", 10)
     
-    # 获取上月值
+    # 获取上月值（仅实测区：伪期间预估行会因字符串序顶掉上月实测值）
     prev_value = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
         KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id,
         KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
+        actual_only_clause(),
     ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).offset(1).limit(1).first()
     
     if not prev_value or not prev_value.actual_value or prev_value.actual_value == 0:
@@ -753,9 +759,11 @@ def run_forecast_deviation_check(
             if not log or log.forecast_value is None:
                 continue
             # 该预测期的实际值（同period匹配；兼容 2026-H1 等半年度）
+            # 仅实测区：预估行不得与预测值自比（否则偏差恒 0，预警失效）
             actual = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
                 KPIValue.kpi_id == rule.kpi_id,
                 KPIValue.period == log.period,
+                actual_only_clause(),
             ).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
             if not actual or not actual.actual_value:
                 continue
@@ -878,9 +886,11 @@ def _check_customer_concentration(kpi_id: int, params: dict, db: Session, entity
             detail = f"{head}收入占比={share}%（合计{total:.0f}元，{rng[0]}~{rng[1]}：{items}）"
 
     if share is None and source in ("auto", "kpi"):
+        # 仅实测区：预估行禁作预警依据（财务裁定 2026-10-02）
         latest = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id,
             KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
         if latest:
             share = round(float(latest.actual_value), 2)
diff --git a/backend/app/api/dashboard.py b/backend/app/api/dashboard.py
index 65fe743a..927bf557 100644
--- a/backend/app/api/dashboard.py
+++ b/backend/app/api/dashboard.py
@@ -12,6 +12,10 @@ from app.utils.cache import get as cache_get, set as cache_set
 from app.utils.voucher_guard import apply_voucher_guard
 from app.utils.threshold_parser import eval_threshold
 from app.utils.alert_entity_scope import month_period_clause
+# 「实测区 / 预估区」分区口径单一事实源（财务裁定 2026-10-02，任总「把 H2 预测行与实际分离」）
+# —— 预估行（data_status='estimated' 或 source_type='forecast'）禁进实测汇总 / 趋势序列 /
+#    预警依据；仅 include_forecast=true 时以独立字段（forecast_value / is_forecast）单列返回。
+from app.utils.kpi_value_scope import actual_only_clause, forecast_only_clause, is_forecast_row
 # 指标方向（反向/正向）唯一权威源 = app.api.kpis.REVERSE_INDICATORS（2026-09-15 M2 准入2 收口）。
 # 本文件原自带一份字面量副本，与 kpis.py 漂移后会与「能力评分」判定相反，故改为导入。
 from app.api.kpis import REVERSE_INDICATORS
@@ -330,9 +334,29 @@ def get_dashboard_summary(role: str = Query("ceo"), period: str = Query("month")
     cache_set("dashboard", cache_key, result, ttl_seconds=30)
     return result
 
+def _sum_rows(values):
+    """区间汇总辅助：保留原实现的「和为 0 视为无数据」历史语义（回归等值前提）"""
+    if not values:
+        return None
+    total = sum(v.actual_value for v in values if v.actual_value)
+    return total if total else None
+
+
+def _aggregate_actual(values, label):
+    """实测区区间汇总 → 与原匿名对象同形（actual_value / period）"""
+    total = _sum_rows(values)
+    if total is None:
+        return None
+    return type('obj', (object,), {"actual_value": total, "period": label})()
+
+
 @router.get("/kpis")
 def get_dashboard_kpis(role: str = Query("ceo"), period: str = Query("month"),
                        start_date: str = Query(None), end_date: str = Query(None),
+                       include_forecast: bool = Query(
+                           False,
+                           description="是否单列返回预估区（data_status=estimated 或 source_type=forecast）；"
+                                       "默认 false=只取实测区，预估行禁与实测相加"),
                        db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id)):
     start, end = parse_period(period, start_date, end_date)
     period_str = start.strftime("%Y-%m")
@@ -342,21 +366,51 @@ def get_dashboard_kpis(role: str = Query("ceo"), period: str = Query("month"),
         KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id
     ).all()
     result = []
+    forecast_section = []   # 预估区（单列，不计入上面的 actual_value）
     
     for k in kpis:
         base_query = db.query(KPIValue).filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id)
+        # 实测区恒过滤：预估行（estimated/forecast）不进实测取值与汇总
+        actual_query = base_query.filter(actual_only_clause())
+        forecast_query = base_query.filter(forecast_only_clause()) if include_forecast else None
+        
+        actual_value = None
+        forecast_value = None
+        is_forecast = False
+        
+        # 期间展示标签（各模式下与实测取值同口径）
+        if period == "month":
+            range_label = period_str
+        elif period == "quarter":
+            _months = period_prefix("quarter")
+            range_label = f"{_months[0]}~{_months[-1]}"
+        elif period == "year":
+            range_label = period_str[:4]
+        elif period == "custom" and start_date and end_date:
+            range_label = f"{start_date}~{end_date}"
+        else:
+            range_label = None
         
         if period == "month":
-            latest = base_query.filter(KPIValue.period == period_str).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+            latest = actual_query.filter(KPIValue.period == period_str).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+            if forecast_query is not None:
+                fc_row = forecast_query.filter(
+                    KPIValue.period == period_str).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+                if fc_row is not None:
+                    forecast_value = fc_row.actual_value
+                    if latest is None:      # 该期只有预估行：值单列展示并打标，不并入实测
+                        is_forecast = True
         elif period == "quarter":
             months = period_prefix("quarter")
-            values = base_query.filter(KPIValue.period.in_(months)).all()
-            latest_val = sum(v.actual_value for v in values if v.actual_value) if values else None
-            latest = type('obj', (object,), {"actual_value": latest_val, "period": f"{months[0]}~{months[-1]}"})() if latest_val else None
+            latest = _aggregate_actual(actual_query.filter(KPIValue.period.in_(months)).all(), range_label)
+            if forecast_query is not None:
+                forecast_value = _sum_rows(forecast_query.filter(KPIValue.period.in_(months)).all())
         elif period == "year":
-            values = base_query.filter(KPIValue.period.like(f"{period_str[:4]}%")).all()
-            latest_val = sum(v.actual_value for v in values if v.actual_value) if values else None
-            latest = type('obj', (object,), {"actual_value": latest_val, "period": period_str[:4]})() if latest_val else None
+            latest = _aggregate_actual(
+                actual_query.filter(KPIValue.period.like(f"{period_str[:4]}%")).all(), range_label)
+            if forecast_query is not None:
+                forecast_value = _sum_rows(
+                    forecast_query.filter(KPIValue.period.like(f"{period_str[:4]}%")).all())
         elif period == "custom" and start_date and end_date:
             periods = []
             d = start
@@ -364,36 +418,62 @@ def get_dashboard_kpis(role: str = Query("ceo"), period: str = Query("month"),
                 periods.append(d.strftime("%Y-%m"))
                 d += timedelta(days=32)
                 d = d.replace(day=1)
-            values = base_query.filter(KPIValue.period.in_(set(periods))).all()
-            latest_val = sum(v.actual_value for v in values if v.actual_value) if values else None
-            latest = type('obj', (object,), {"actual_value": latest_val, "period": f"{start_date}~{end_date}"})() if latest_val else None
+            latest = _aggregate_actual(actual_query.filter(KPIValue.period.in_(set(periods))).all(),
+                                       range_label)
+            if forecast_query is not None:
+                forecast_value = _sum_rows(
+                    forecast_query.filter(KPIValue.period.in_(set(periods))).all())
         else:
-            latest = base_query.filter(month_period_clause(KPIValue.period)).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).first()
+            latest = actual_query.filter(
+                month_period_clause(KPIValue.period)).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).first()
+            if forecast_query is not None:
+                fc_row = forecast_query.filter(
+                    month_period_clause(KPIValue.period)).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).first()
+                if fc_row is not None:
+                    forecast_value = fc_row.actual_value
+                    if latest is None:
+                        is_forecast = True
+                        range_label = fc_row.period
         
         alert = db.query(KPIAlert).filter(
             KPIAlert.kpi_id == k.id,
             KPIAlert.status == "pending",
         ).order_by(KPIAlert.id.desc()).first()
         
+        if forecast_value is not None:
+            forecast_section.append({
+                "kpi_id": k.id, "kpi_code": k.kpi_code, "kpi_name": k.kpi_name,
+                "value": forecast_value, "unit": k.unit,
+                "period": (latest.period if latest is not None else range_label),
+                "data_status": "estimated", "is_forecast": True, "period_type": "forecast",
+            })
+        
         result.append({
             "id": k.id, "kpi_code": k.kpi_code, "kpi_name": k.kpi_name,
             "dimension": k.dimension, "unit": k.unit, "target_value": k.target_value,
             "target_monthly": k.target_monthly, "target_quarterly": k.target_quarterly, "target_yearly": k.target_yearly,
             "actual_value": latest.actual_value if latest else None,
             "period": latest.period if latest else None,
+            "forecast_value": forecast_value,
+            "is_forecast": is_forecast,
+            "period_type": "forecast" if is_forecast else "actual",
             "alert_level": alert.alert_level if alert else "none",
             "alert_message": alert.alert_message if alert else None,
             "frequency": k.frequency,
             "responsible_dept": k.responsible_dept,
         })
     
-    return {"data": result, "period": period, "range": {"start": start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), "end": end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")}}
+    resp = {"data": result, "period": period, "range": {"start": start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), "end": end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")}}
+    if include_forecast:
+        resp["forecast"] = forecast_section
+    return resp
 
 
 @router.get("/my-kpis")
 def get_my_kpis(
     current_user: User = Depends(require_auth),
     period: str = Query("month"),
+    include_forecast: bool = Query(False, description="是否单列返回预估区；默认 false=只取实测区"),
     db: Session = Depends(get_db),
     entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id),
 ):
@@ -411,6 +491,7 @@ def get_my_kpis(
         KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id,  # 账套隔离 2026-09-21
     ).all()
     result = []
+    forecast_section = []   # 预估区（单列，不进 actual_value / trend）
     
     for k in kpis:
         # business角色筛选
@@ -419,11 +500,36 @@ def get_my_kpis(
             if responsible and responsible != username and responsible != name:
                 continue
         
+        # 实测区恒过滤（预估行禁作实测值/禁进趋势序列）
         latest = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
             KPIValue.period == period_str,
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
         
+        forecast_value = None
+        is_forecast = False
+        if include_forecast:
+            fc_row = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+                KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
+                KPIValue.period == period_str,
+                forecast_only_clause(),
+            ).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+            # 无月期预估行时回退到最近一条预估行（半年度 H2 等伪期间），仅作单列展示
+            if fc_row is None:
+                fc_row = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+                    KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
+                    forecast_only_clause(),
+                ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+            if fc_row is not None:
+                forecast_value = fc_row.actual_value
+                is_forecast = latest is None
+                forecast_section.append({
+                    "kpi_id": k.id, "kpi_code": k.kpi_code, "kpi_name": k.kpi_name,
+                    "value": forecast_value, "unit": k.unit, "period": fc_row.period,
+                    "data_status": "estimated", "is_forecast": True, "period_type": "forecast",
+                })
+        
         alert = db.query(KPIAlert).filter(
             KPIAlert.kpi_id == k.id,
             KPIAlert.status == "pending",
@@ -432,6 +538,7 @@ def get_my_kpis(
         trend_values = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
             month_period_clause(KPIValue.period),
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).limit(6).all()
         trend = [{"period": v.period, "value": v.actual_value} for v in reversed(trend_values)]
         
@@ -442,6 +549,9 @@ def get_my_kpis(
             "target_monthly": k.target_monthly, "target_quarterly": k.target_quarterly, "target_yearly": k.target_yearly,
             "actual_value": latest.actual_value if latest else None,
             "period": latest.period if latest else period_str,
+            "forecast_value": forecast_value,
+            "is_forecast": is_forecast,
+            "period_type": "forecast" if is_forecast else "actual",
             "alert_level": alert.alert_level if alert else "none",
             "alert_message": alert.alert_message if alert else None,
             "alert_id": alert.id if alert else None,
@@ -454,13 +564,17 @@ def get_my_kpis(
             "threshold_red": k.threshold_red,
         })
     
-    return {"data": result, "user_role": role, "user_name": name, "period": period_str}
+    resp = {"data": result, "user_role": role, "user_name": name, "period": period_str}
+    if include_forecast:
+        resp["forecast"] = forecast_section
+    return resp
 
 
 @router.get("/finance-analysis")
 def get_finance_analysis(
     current_user: User = Depends(require_auth),
     period: str = Query("month"),
+    include_forecast: bool = Query(False, description="是否单列返回预估区；默认 false=只取实测区"),
     db: Session = Depends(get_db),
     entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id),
 ):
@@ -474,15 +588,33 @@ def get_finance_analysis(
     ).all()
     
     kpi_data = []
+    forecast_section = []   # 预估区（单列，不进 trend / summary）
     for k in finance_kpis:
+        # 实测区恒过滤（预估行禁作实测值/禁进趋势序列）
         latest = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
             KPIValue.period == period_str,
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
         
+        forecast_value = None
+        if include_forecast:
+            fc_row = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+                KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
+                forecast_only_clause(),
+            ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+            if fc_row is not None:
+                forecast_value = fc_row.actual_value
+                forecast_section.append({
+                    "kpi_id": k.id, "kpi_code": k.kpi_code, "kpi_name": k.kpi_name,
+                    "value": forecast_value, "unit": k.unit, "period": fc_row.period,
+                    "data_status": "estimated", "is_forecast": True, "period_type": "forecast",
+                })
+        
         trend_values = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
             month_period_clause(KPIValue.period),
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).limit(6).all()
         trend = [{"period": v.period, "value": v.actual_value} for v in reversed(trend_values)]
         
@@ -496,6 +628,8 @@ def get_finance_analysis(
             "unit": k.unit, "target_value": k.target_value,
             "target_monthly": k.target_monthly, "target_quarterly": k.target_quarterly, "target_yearly": k.target_yearly,
             "actual_value": latest.actual_value if latest else None,
+            "forecast_value": forecast_value,
+            "is_forecast": False,
             "threshold_green": k.threshold_green,
             "threshold_yellow": k.threshold_yellow,
             "threshold_red": k.threshold_red,
@@ -509,7 +643,7 @@ def get_finance_analysis(
     cost_control = next((k for k in kpi_data if k["kpi_code"] == "COST_CONTROL_RATE"), None)
     receivable = next((k for k in kpi_data if k["kpi_code"] == "RECEIVABLE_TURNOVER"), None)
     
-    return {
+    resp = {
         "period": period_str,
         "kpis": kpi_data,
         "summary": {
@@ -519,11 +653,21 @@ def get_finance_analysis(
             "receivable_turnover": receivable["actual_value"] if receivable else None,
         }
     }
+    if include_forecast:
+        resp["forecast"] = forecast_section
+    return resp
 
 
 @router.get("/predict")
-def predict_kpis(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id)):
-    """基于历史趋势预测下月KPI值（简单线性回归）"""
+def predict_kpis(include_forecast: bool = Query(
+        False, description="是否单列返回预估区；默认 false=只取实测区（预估行禁进预测序列）"),
+        db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id)):
+    """基于历史趋势预测下月KPI值（简单线性回归）
+
+    口径（财务裁定 2026-10-02）：预估行（estimated/forecast）**不进回归序列**——
+    预估禁与实测相加、禁作预测/预警依据。`include_forecast=true` 仅额外单列返回
+    预估区（`forecast_rows`），不改变回归取数。
+    """
     from datetime import datetime, timedelta
     
     period_str = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m")
@@ -539,12 +683,25 @@ def predict_kpis(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends(get_ent
         KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id
     ).all()
     predictions = []
+    forecast_rows = []   # 预估区（单列，不参与回归）
     
     for k in kpis:
         values = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.asc()).all()
         
+        if include_forecast:
+            for fc_row in db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+                    KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
+                    forecast_only_clause(),
+            ).order_by(KPIValue.period.asc()).all():
+                forecast_rows.append({
+                    "kpi_id": k.id, "kpi_code": k.kpi_code, "kpi_name": k.kpi_name,
+                    "period": fc_row.period, "value": fc_row.actual_value,
+                    "unit": k.unit, "data_status": "estimated", "is_forecast": True, "period_type": "forecast",
+                })
+        
         # 需要至少3个数据点才能做预测
         if len(values) < 3:
             continue
@@ -595,13 +752,16 @@ def predict_kpis(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends(get_ent
             "data_points": len(points),
         })
     
-    return {
+    resp = {
         "current_period": period_str,
         "next_period": next_period,
         "predictions": predictions,
         "kpi_count": len(kpis),
         "predictable_count": len(predictions),
     }
+    if include_forecast:
+        resp["forecast_rows"] = forecast_rows
+    return resp
 
 
 # ── 个人工作台 ──────────────────────────────
@@ -635,10 +795,15 @@ _MAIN_VALUE_PRIORITY = case(
 
 
 def latest_kpi_value(db: Session, kpi_id: int) -> Optional[KPIValue]:
-    """该 KPI 的最新可用值：月期间优先（同期内主值优先），无月期间行时回退 calculated_at 倒序。"""
+    """该 KPI 的最新可用值：月期间优先（同期内主值优先），无月期间行时回退 calculated_at 倒序。
+
+    口径（财务裁定 2026-10-02）：**只取实测区**——预估行（data_status='estimated' 或
+    source_type='forecast'）不得作为卡片「最新值」（工作台卡片=实测口径）。
+    """
     monthly = (
         db.query(KPIValue)
-        .filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id, month_period_clause(KPIValue.period))
+        .filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id, month_period_clause(KPIValue.period),
+                actual_only_clause())
         .order_by(
             KPIValue.period.desc(),
             _MAIN_VALUE_PRIORITY,
@@ -651,7 +816,7 @@ def latest_kpi_value(db: Session, kpi_id: int) -> Optional[KPIValue]:
         return monthly
     return (
         db.query(KPIValue)
-        .filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id)
+        .filter(KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id, actual_only_clause())
         .order_by(KPIValue.calculated_at.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc())
         .first()
     )
@@ -660,6 +825,7 @@ def latest_kpi_value(db: Session, kpi_id: int) -> Optional[KPIValue]:
 @router.get("/my-dashboard")
 def my_dashboard(
     current_user: User = Depends(require_auth),
+    include_forecast: bool = Query(False, description="是否单列返回预估区；默认 false=只取实测区"),
     db: Session = Depends(get_db),
     entity_id: int = Depends(get_entity_id),
 ):
@@ -703,9 +869,23 @@ def my_dashboard(
     all_kpis = assigned_kpis + preset_kpis
 
     kpi_list = []
+    forecast_section = []   # 预估区（单列，不作卡片实测值）
     for k in all_kpis:
         latest_v = latest_kpi_value(db, k.id)
-
+        
+        forecast_value = None
+        if include_forecast:
+            fc_row = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
+                KPIValue.kpi_id == k.id,
+                forecast_only_clause(),
+            ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
+            if fc_row is not None:
+                forecast_value = fc_row.actual_value
+                forecast_section.append({
+                    "kpi_id": k.id, "kpi_code": k.kpi_code, "kpi_name": k.kpi_name,
+                    "value": forecast_value, "unit": k.unit, "period": fc_row.period,
+                    "data_status": "estimated", "is_forecast": True, "period_type": "forecast",
+                })
         actual = latest_v.actual_value if latest_v else None
         target = kpi_target_by_frequency(k)
         level = "gray"
@@ -735,6 +915,9 @@ def my_dashboard(
             "unit": k.unit,
             "level": level,
             "period": latest_v.period if latest_v else None,
+            "forecast_value": forecast_value,
+            "is_forecast": is_forecast_row(latest_v),
+            "period_type": "actual",
         })
 
     # 2. 我的改善行动（assignee匹配；CEO/管理员看全部）
@@ -814,8 +997,11 @@ def my_dashboard(
                 "related_type": "kpi",
             })
 
-    return {
+    resp = {
         "kpis": kpi_list,
         "action_plans": plan_list,
         "reminders": reminders,
     }
+    if include_forecast:
+        resp["forecast"] = forecast_section
+    return resp
diff --git a/backend/app/utils/kpi_value_scope.py b/backend/app/utils/kpi_value_scope.py
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..e973bfe6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/backend/app/utils/kpi_value_scope.py
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
+"""KPI 取值分区口径 —— 「实测区 / 预估区」单一事实源（财务裁定 2026-10-02）
+
+依据：`wecom-finance/pending-tasks/finance-20261002-h2-forecast-actual-separation-fullstack.md`
+（任总 2026-10-02 11:35 CST DM 直令「把 H2 预测行与实际分离」）
+
+财务口径裁定（逐字）：
+
+| 区 | 判据 | 展示 | 禁止 |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 实测区 | `data_status` ∈ {verified, pending, calculated} 且 `source_type` ≠ forecast | 正常展示 | 不得含 estimated |
+| 预估区 | `data_status = estimated` 或 `source_type = forecast` | 单列区 / 带「预估」标签 | 禁与实测相加、禁进趋势序列、禁作预警依据 |
+
+实现口径说明（**边界决策，供复核**）：
+- 本模块按**预估区的补集**实现实测区（`data_status='estimated'` 或 `source_type='forecast'`
+  一律排除），而不是按 `{verified, pending, calculated}` 正向白名单实现。
+  理由两条：①裁定的「禁止」列只点名 `estimated`；②本单验收要求
+  「回归：实测区各端点返回值与改动前逐期等值（**仅少掉 2 行预估**）」，
+  正向白名单会连带排除 `invalid`(6) / `error`(6) 行，超出该回归口径。
+  若产品口径要求把 invalid/error 也逐出取数层，属**另一次口径变更**，须财务重新裁定。
+- `NULL` 值按实测处理（`coalesce(col, '')`）：历史行 `data_status` 可能为空，
+  空值不等于「预估」（fail-open 到既有行为，不静默吞行）。
+
+约定：所有对外 `/api/cma/**` 的 KPIValue 读路径**默认只取实测区**；
+仅当调用方显式传 `include_forecast=true` 时，预估行才**以独立字段**
+（`forecast_value` / `is_forecast` / `forecast_rows`）返回，**不与实测相加**。
+禁止在调用点各写一份 `data_status == 'estimated'` 字面量（避免多处漂移）。
+"""
+from sqlalchemy import and_, func, or_
+
+from app.models import KPIValue
+
+#: 预估区 —— 数据状态判据
+FORECAST_DATA_STATUS = "estimated"
+#: 预估区 —— 来源类型判据
+FORECAST_SOURCE_TYPES = ("forecast",)
+
+
+def _non_null_neq(column, value):
+    """`coalesce(column, '') != value` —— NULL 视为「非该值」（不静默吞历史空值行）"""
+    return func.coalesce(column, "") != value
+
+
+def actual_only_clause():
+    """实测区 SQL 判据 = 预估区补集（对外读路径默认过滤条件）"""
+    return and_(
+        _non_null_neq(KPIValue.data_status, FORECAST_DATA_STATUS),
+        *[_non_null_neq(KPIValue.source_type, t) for t in FORECAST_SOURCE_TYPES],
+    )
+
+
+def forecast_only_clause():
+    """预估区 SQL 判据（`include_forecast=true` 时单列取数用）"""
+    return or_(
+        KPIValue.data_status == FORECAST_DATA_STATUS,
+        KPIValue.source_type.in_(FORECAST_SOURCE_TYPES),
+    )
+
+
+def is_forecast_row(row) -> bool:
+    """Python 侧同判据（单一事实源，避免调用点重写字面量）"""
+    if row is None:
+        return False
+    data_status = getattr(row, "data_status", None) or ""
+    source_type = getattr(row, "source_type", None) or ""
+    return (data_status == FORECAST_DATA_STATUS
+            or source_type in FORECAST_SOURCE_TYPES)
diff --git a/frontend/src/components/ForecastTag.vue b/frontend/src/components/ForecastTag.vue
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..c73fe9fc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/frontend/src/components/ForecastTag.vue
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+<template>
+  <span class="forecast-tag" :title="title">{{ label }}</span>
+</template>
+
+<script setup lang="ts">
+/**
+ * 预估标签（predefined「预估」标记）
+ *
+ * 口径：财务裁定 2026-10-02 —— 预估行（data_status='estimated' 或 source_type='forecast'）
+ * 单列展示、带本标签；不得与实测相加、不得同线绘制、不得作预警依据。
+ * 无 emoji（前端护栏）。
+ */
+withDefaults(defineProps<{ label?: string; title?: string }>(), {
+  label: '预估',
+  title: '预估值：来源 data_status=estimated / source_type=forecast，单列展示，不计入实测汇总、不进趋势与预警',
+})
+</script>
+
+<style scoped>
+.forecast-tag {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  height: 18px;
+  padding: 0 6px;
+  border-radius: 3px;
+  font-size: 12px;
+  line-height: 18px;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+  color: #b88230;
+  background: #fdf6ec;
+  border: 1px solid #f5dab1;
+}
+</style>
diff --git a/frontend/src/views/Dashboard.vue b/frontend/src/views/Dashboard.vue
index 97e930c5..262a2586 100644
--- a/frontend/src/views/Dashboard.vue
+++ b/frontend/src/views/Dashboard.vue
@@ -93,6 +93,11 @@
                     <span class="kpi-row-val">{{ fmtValue(k.actual_value, k.kpi_name) }}</span>
                     <span class="kpi-row-target">/ {{ k.target_value ?? '-' }}</span>
                   </div>
+                  <!-- 预估区（单列，不与上面的实测值相加） -->
+                  <div v-if="k.forecast_value != null" class="kpi-row-forecast">
+                    <ForecastTag />
+                    <span class="kpi-row-fc-val">{{ fmtValue(k.forecast_value, k.kpi_name) }}</span>
+                  </div>
                 </div>
               </div>
             </div>
@@ -124,6 +129,18 @@
               </div>
             </div>
           </div>
+
+          <!-- 预估区（单列展示：不与实测相加、不进趋势序列、不作预警依据） -->
+          <div v-if="forecastList.length > 0" class="right-card forecast-card">
+            <div class="right-card-title">预估区（不计入实测）</div>
+            <div class="forecast-note">以下为预估值（data_status=estimated / source_type=forecast），单列展示</div>
+            <div v-for="f in forecastList" :key="f.kpi_code + '|' + f.period" class="forecast-row">
+              <span class="forecast-name">{{ f.kpi_name }}</span>
+              <span class="forecast-period">{{ f.period }}</span>
+              <span class="forecast-val">{{ fmtValue(f.value, f.kpi_code) }}</span>
+              <ForecastTag />
+            </div>
+          </div>
         </div>
       </div>
 
@@ -149,6 +166,11 @@
             <span class="item-unit">{{ k.unit }}</span>
           </div>
           <div class="card-item-target">目标 {{ k.target_value ?? '-' }}</div>
+          <!-- 预估区（单列，不与上面的实测值相加） -->
+          <div v-if="k.forecast_value != null" class="card-item-forecast">
+            <ForecastTag />
+            <span class="card-item-fc-val">{{ fmtValue(k.forecast_value, k.kpi_name) }}</span>
+          </div>
           <div class="card-item-trend" v-if="k.trend && k.trend.length >= 2">
             <span v-for="(t, i) in k.trend.slice(-3)" :key="i" class="tdot" :style="{ background: trendColor(t.value, k) }"></span>
             <span class="trend-hint">近3月</span>
@@ -185,6 +207,21 @@
               <div class="tbar-label">{{ t.period.slice(-2) }}</div>
             </div>
           </div>
+          <!-- 预估区（单列；不进上方趋势条，趋势序列仅实测区） -->
+          <div v-if="k.forecast_value != null" class="card-item-forecast">
+            <ForecastTag />
+            <span class="card-item-fc-val">{{ fmtValue(k.forecast_value, k.kpi_code) }}</span>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <!-- 预估区（单列展示：不与实测相加、不进趋势序列） -->
+      <div v-if="forecastList.length > 0" class="forecast-block">
+        <div class="forecast-block-title">预估区（不计入实测）</div>
+        <div v-for="f in forecastList" :key="f.kpi_code + '|' + f.period" class="forecast-row">
+          <span class="forecast-name">{{ f.kpi_name }}</span>
+          <span class="forecast-period">{{ f.period }}</span>
+          <span class="forecast-val">{{ fmtValue(f.value, f.kpi_code) }}</span>
+          <ForecastTag />
         </div>
       </div>
     </template>
@@ -277,6 +314,8 @@ import CountUp from '../components/CountUp.vue'
 import GrowthQuality from '../components/GrowthQuality.vue'
 import BEPBreakEvenCard from '../components/BEPBreakEvenCard.vue'
 import MyDialog from '../components/MyDialog.vue'
+// 预估区标签（财务裁定 2026-10-02：预估行单列展示，不与实测相加/同线）
+import ForecastTag from '../components/ForecastTag.vue'
 
 const router = useRouter()
 
@@ -327,6 +366,8 @@ const yellowKpis = computed(() => kpis.value.filter((k: any) => k.alert_level ==
 const myKpis = ref<any[]>([])
 const finKpis = ref<any[]>([])
 const finSummary = ref<any>({})
+// 预估区（单列，不计入实测汇总；财务裁定 2026-10-02）
+const forecastList = ref<any[]>([])
 const enabledChannels = ref(0)
 const aiAnalysis = ref('')
 const aiLoading = ref(false)
@@ -456,25 +497,29 @@ async function loadData() {
   try {
     const entityId = Number(localStorage.getItem('cma_entity_id') || 1)
     const params = { ...getPeriodParams(), entity_id: entityId }
+    // include_forecast=true：预估行**单列返回**（forecast 字段），实测取值不受影响
     if (userRole.value === 'ceo') {
       const [kpiRes, alertRes, sumRes, predRes] = await Promise.all([
-        dashboardApi.kpis({ role: 'ceo', ...params }),
+        dashboardApi.kpis({ role: 'ceo', ...params, include_forecast: true }),
         alertApi.list({ limit: 10, entity_id: entityId }),
         dashboardApi.summary({ role: 'ceo', ...params }),
         dashboardApi.predict({ entity_id: entityId }).catch(() => ({ data: [] })),
       ])
       kpis.value = (kpiRes as any).data || []
+      forecastList.value = (kpiRes as any).forecast || []
       alerts.value = (alertRes as any).data?.filter((a: any) => a.status === 'pending') || []
       summary.value = { kpi_total: (sumRes as any).kpi_total || 0, alert_count: (sumRes as any).alert_count || 0 }
       predictions.value = (predRes as any)?.predictions || []
       dataRange.value = (kpiRes as any).range?.start + ' ~ ' + (kpiRes as any).range?.end
     } else if (userRole.value === 'business') {
-      const r: any = await dashboardApi.myKpis?.({ ...params })
+      const r: any = await dashboardApi.myKpis?.({ ...params, include_forecast: true })
       myKpis.value = (r as any)?.data || []
+      forecastList.value = (r as any)?.forecast || []
       dataRange.value = (r as any)?.period || ''
     } else if (userRole.value === 'finance') {
-      const r: any = await dashboardApi.financeAnalysis?.({ ...params })
+      const r: any = await dashboardApi.financeAnalysis?.({ ...params, include_forecast: true })
       finKpis.value = (r as any)?.kpis || []
+      forecastList.value = (r as any)?.forecast || []
       finSummary.value = (r as any)?.summary || {}
       dataRange.value = (r as any)?.period || ''
     } else if (userRole.value === 'it') {
@@ -546,6 +591,9 @@ onMounted(() => { loadData() })
 .kpi-row-btm { display:flex; align-items:baseline; gap:4px; }
 .kpi-row-val { font-size:18px; font-weight:700; color:#1a1a2e; }
 .kpi-row-target { font-size:12px; color:#aaa; }
+/* 预估区（单列，不与实测值相加；财务裁定 2026-10-02） */
+.kpi-row-forecast { display:flex; align-items:center; gap:4px; margin-top:2px; }
+.kpi-row-fc-val { font-size:12px; color:#b88230; }
 
 /* 右侧预测 */
 .right-card { background:#fff; border-radius:10px; padding:16px; box-shadow:0 1px 3px rgba(0,0,0,0.05); border:1px solid #f0f0f0; }
@@ -581,6 +629,18 @@ onMounted(() => { loadData() })
 .card-item-val { font-size:26px; font-weight:700; margin-bottom:4px; }
 .item-unit { font-size:13px; color:#999; font-weight:400; margin-left:4px; }
 .card-item-target { font-size:12px; color:#aaa; margin-bottom:6px; }
+/* 预估区（单列：卡片内独立一行 + 「预估」标签，不与实测相加/同线） */
+.card-item-forecast { display:flex; align-items:center; gap:4px; margin-top:2px; }
+.card-item-fc-val { font-size:12px; color:#b88230; }
+.forecast-card { margin-top:16px; }
+.forecast-note { font-size:12px; color:#999; margin:-8px 0 10px; }
+.forecast-block { margin-top:16px; background:#fff; border:1px solid #f0f0f0; border-radius:10px; padding:16px; box-shadow:0 1px 3px rgba(0,0,0,0.05); }
+.forecast-block-title { font-size:15px; font-weight:600; margin-bottom:10px; }
+.forecast-row { display:flex; align-items:center; gap:8px; padding:6px 0; border-top:1px dashed #f2f2f2; }
+.forecast-row:first-of-type { border-top:none; }
+.forecast-name { flex:1; font-size:13px; color:#333; }
+.forecast-period { font-size:12px; color:#999; }
+.forecast-val { font-size:13px; font-weight:600; color:#b88230; }
 .card-item-trend { display:flex; align-items:center; gap:4px; }
 .tdot { width:8px; height:8px; border-radius:50%; display:inline-block; }
 .trend-hint { font-size:10px; color:#ccc; margin-left:2px; }
diff --git a/frontend/src/views/MyDashboard.vue b/frontend/src/views/MyDashboard.vue
index 2bd33200..57b2852a 100644
--- a/frontend/src/views/MyDashboard.vue
+++ b/frontend/src/views/MyDashboard.vue
@@ -87,6 +87,11 @@
               :show-text="false"
             />
             <div v-else style="height:6px;line-height:6px;color:#c0c4cc;font-size:11px">—</div>
+            <!-- 预估区（单列，不与上方实测值相加；财务裁定 2026-10-02） -->
+            <div v-if="k.forecast_value != null" class="kpi-forecast-row">
+              <ForecastTag />
+              <span class="kpi-forecast-val">{{ k.forecast_value }}</span>
+            </div>
           </div>
         </div>
       </div>
@@ -128,6 +133,8 @@
 import { ref, computed, onMounted } from "vue"
 import { useRouter } from "vue-router"
 import api from "../api/index"
+// 预估区标签（财务裁定 2026-10-02：预估行单列展示，不与实测相加/同线）
+import ForecastTag from "../components/ForecastTag.vue"
 
 // 排序固化: danger(逾期行动/红色预警) 在前, warning(黄色预警) 在后;
 // 同 severity 保持后端生成顺序 (overdue→red→yellow), 不改变现有展示次序
@@ -146,6 +153,8 @@ const loading = ref(true)
 const kpis = ref<any[]>([])
 const actionPlans = ref<any[]>([])
 const reminders = ref<any[]>([])
+// 预估区（单列，不计入卡片实测值；财务裁定 2026-10-02）
+const forecastList = ref<any[]>([])
 const todayStr = new Date().toLocaleDateString('zh-CN', { year: 'numeric', month: 'long', day: 'numeric', weekday: 'long' })
 
 function fmtValue(val: any, code: string) {
@@ -224,8 +233,10 @@ function goToDetail(r: any) {
 
 onMounted(async () => {
   try {
-    const r: any = await api.get('/dashboard/my-dashboard')
+    // include_forecast=true：预估行**单列返回**（forecast 字段），卡片实测值不受影响
+    const r: any = await api.get('/dashboard/my-dashboard', { params: { include_forecast: true } })
     kpis.value = r.kpis || []
+    forecastList.value = r.forecast || []
     actionPlans.value = r.action_plans || []
     reminders.value = r.reminders || []
   } catch (e: any) {
@@ -342,6 +353,9 @@ onMounted(async () => {
   padding: 0 6px; border-radius: 4px; margin-right: 6px;
 }
 .kpi-target { font-size: 12px; color: #999; }
+/* 预估区（单列一行 + 「预估」标签，不与卡片实测值相加） */
+.kpi-forecast-row { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 4px; margin-top: 6px; }
+.kpi-forecast-val { font-size: 12px; color: #b88230; }
 
 /* ── 改善行动 ── */
 .plans-section { margin-bottom: 28px; }