feat: P0/P1/P2全部功能 — 四层泳道/视角切换/KPI看板/预警/差异反打/预算/知识面板/回顾会/情景预测/Excel导入/角色权限

backend/app/utils/scenario_engine.py

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+"""多情景预测模拟引擎 — 管理会计OS P2-1
+从战略地图KPI输入变量出发，按类别映射到财务影响，
+输出乐观/基准/保守三情景数值+曲线数据
+"""
+import math
+import logging
+from typing import List, Dict, Optional
+from datetime import datetime
+
+logger = logging.getLogger("cma.scenario")
+
+# KPI类别 → 财务影响映射系数
+# 降本类: 每变化1% → 成本节省系数
+# 增收类: 每变化1% → 收入增长系数
+KPI_CATEGORY_MAP = {
+    # 增收类
+    "revenue_growth": {"type": "revenue", "factor": 0.8, "desc": "收入增长"},
+    "customer_scale": {"type": "revenue", "factor": 0.6, "desc": "客户规模→收入"},
+    # 降本类
+    "cost_control": {"type": "cost", "factor": -0.7, "desc": "成本节约"},
+    "asset_efficiency": {"type": "cost", "factor": -0.3, "desc": "资产效率→成本"},
+    # 利润类
+    "profitability": {"type": "profit", "factor": 0.5, "desc": "直接利润影响"},
+    # 现金流类
+    "cash_risk": {"type": "cash", "factor": 0.4, "desc": "现金流影响"},
+    # 客户类→收入
+    "customer_satisfaction": {"type": "revenue", "factor": 0.3, "desc": "满意度→收入"},
+    "customer_concentration": {"type": "revenue", "factor": -0.2, "desc": "集中度→风险"},
+    # 流程类→成本
+    "delivery_quality": {"type": "cost", "factor": -0.3, "desc": "交付质量→成本"},
+    "supply_chain": {"type": "cost", "factor": -0.2, "desc": "供应链→成本"},
+    # 学习类→长期收入
+    "talent_pipeline": {"type": "revenue", "factor": 0.15, "desc": "人才→收入"},
+    "employee_engagement": {"type": "cost", "factor": -0.1, "desc": "敬业度→成本"},
+    "innovation": {"type": "revenue", "factor": 0.2, "desc": "创新→收入"},
+}
+
+# 默认基准财务数据（万元/月）
+DEFAULT_BASE_REVENUE = 1000.0   # 基准收入
+DEFAULT_BASE_COST = 700.0       # 基准成本
+DEFAULT_BASE_PROFIT = 300.0     # 基准利润
+
+
+def calculate_scenario(
+    variables: List[Dict],
+    scenario_type: str = "base",  # "optimistic" / "base" / "pessimistic"
+    base_revenue: float = DEFAULT_BASE_REVENUE,
+    base_cost: float = DEFAULT_BASE_COST,
+) -> Dict:
+    """根据KPI变量列表和三情景系数计算财务影响
+
+    Args:
+        variables: [{"kpi_code", "kpi_name", "category", "value", "step_optimistic", "step_base", "step_pessimistic"}, ...]
+        scenario_type: 情景类型
+        base_revenue: 基准收入
+        base_cost: 基准成本
+
+    Returns:
+        {revenue, cost, profit, profit_margin, kpi_impacts, details}
+    """
+    step_key = {
+        "optimistic": "step_optimistic",
+        "base": "step_base",
+        "pessimistic": "step_pessimistic",
+    }.get(scenario_type, "step_base")
+
+    total_revenue_impact = 0.0
+    total_cost_impact = 0.0
+    total_profit_impact = 0.0
+    total_cash_impact = 0.0
+    base_profit_val = base_revenue - base_cost
+    details = []
+
+    for var in variables:
+        kpi_code = var.get("kpi_code", "")
+        kpi_name = var.get("kpi_name", "")
+        category = var.get("category", "")
+        current_value = var.get("value", 0)
+        step_value = var.get(step_key, 0)
+
+        # 变化百分比 (当前值变化 / 当前值)
+        if current_value and current_value != 0:
+            change_pct = step_value / abs(current_value) * 100
+        else:
+            change_pct = 0
+
+        # 查找类别映射
+        mapping = KPI_CATEGORY_MAP.get(category, {"type": "revenue", "factor": 0.5, "desc": "通用影响"})
+        impact_type = mapping["type"]
+        factor = mapping["factor"]
+        impact_desc = mapping["desc"]
+
+        # 计算财务影响 = 变化率 × 系数 × 基准值
+        financial_impact = change_pct / 100 * factor
+        if impact_type == "revenue":
+            impact_amount = financial_impact * base_revenue
+            total_revenue_impact += impact_amount
+        elif impact_type == "cost":
+            impact_amount = financial_impact * base_cost
+            total_cost_impact += impact_amount
+        elif impact_type == "profit":
+            impact_amount = financial_impact * base_profit_val
+            total_profit_impact += impact_amount
+        elif impact_type == "cash":
+            impact_amount = financial_impact * base_profit_val
+            total_cash_impact += impact_amount
+        else:
+            impact_amount = 0
+
+        details.append({
+            "kpi_code": kpi_code,
+            "kpi_name": kpi_name,
+            "category": category,
+            "current_value": current_value,
+            "scenario_value": step_value,
+            "change_pct": round(change_pct, 2),
+            "impact_type": impact_type,
+            "impact_desc": impact_desc,
+            "impact_amount": round(impact_amount, 2),
+        })
+
+    # 合成最终财务数据
+    final_revenue = base_revenue + total_revenue_impact
+    final_cost = base_cost + total_cost_impact
+    # 重新计算利润（考虑所有影响）
+    final_profit = (final_revenue - final_cost) + total_profit_impact
+    profit_margin = round(final_profit / final_revenue * 100, 2) if final_revenue else 0
+
+    return {
+        "scenario_type": scenario_type,
+        "base_revenue": base_revenue,
+        "base_cost": base_cost,
+        "base_profit": base_revenue - base_cost,
+        "revenue": round(final_revenue, 2),
+        "cost": round(final_cost, 2),
+        "profit": round(final_profit, 2),
+        "profit_margin": profit_margin,
+        "revenue_impact": round(total_revenue_impact, 2),
+        "cost_impact": round(total_cost_impact, 2),
+        "profit_impact": round(total_profit_impact, 2),
+        "cash_impact": round(total_cash_impact, 2),
+        "kpi_impacts": details,
+    }
+
+
+def run_three_scenarios(
+    variables: List[Dict],
+    base_revenue: float = DEFAULT_BASE_REVENUE,
+    base_cost: float = DEFAULT_BASE_COST,
+    months: int = 12,
+) -> Dict:
+    """运行三情景模拟，生成曲线数据
+
+    Args:
+        variables: KPI变量列表，每个包含step_optimistic/step_base/step_pessimistic
+        base_revenue: 基准月度收入
+        base_cost: 基准月度成本
+        months: 预测月数
+
+    Returns:
+        {scenarios: [...], chart_data: {months, optimistic, base, pessimistic}, summary}
+    """
+    optimistic = calculate_scenario(variables, "optimistic", base_revenue, base_cost)
+    base = calculate_scenario(variables, "base", base_revenue, base_cost)
+    pessimistic = calculate_scenario(variables, "pessimistic", base_revenue, base_cost)
+
+    # 生成月度曲线数据（按月线性趋近情景值）
+    start_revenue = base_revenue
+    start_cost = base_cost
+    start_profit = base_revenue - base_cost
+
+    chart_data = {
+        "months": [],
+        "optimistic": {"revenue": [], "cost": [], "profit": []},
+        "base": {"revenue": [], "cost": [], "profit": []},
+        "pessimistic": {"revenue": [], "cost": [], "profit": []},
+    }
+
+    for m in range(1, months + 1):
+        progress = m / months  # 从0到1线性趋近
+        label = f"第{m}月" if months <= 12 else f"M{m}"
+
+        for scenario_type, scenario_data in [
+            ("optimistic", optimistic),
+            ("base", base),
+            ("pessimistic", pessimistic),
+        ]:
+            rev = start_revenue + (scenario_data["revenue"] - start_revenue) * progress
+            cst = start_cost + (scenario_data["cost"] - start_cost) * progress
+            prf = start_profit + (scenario_data["profit"] - start_profit) * progress
+            chart_data[scenario_type]["revenue"].append(round(rev, 2))
+            chart_data[scenario_type]["cost"].append(round(cst, 2))
+            chart_data[scenario_type]["profit"].append(round(prf, 2))
+
+        chart_data["months"].append(label)
+
+    # 汇总
+    base_profit_val = base["profit"]
+    scenarios_list = []
+    for label, data in [
+        ("乐观", optimistic),
+        ("基准", base),
+        ("保守", pessimistic),
+    ]:
+        deviation = data["profit"] - base_profit_val
+        scenarios_list.append({
+            "scenario": label,
+            "revenue": data["revenue"],
+            "cost": data["cost"],
+            "profit": data["profit"],
+            "profit_margin": data["profit_margin"],
+            "deviation_from_base": round(deviation, 2),
+            "deviation_pct": round(deviation / base_profit_val * 100, 2) if base_profit_val else 0,
+            "kpi_impacts": data["kpi_impacts"],
+        })
+
+    summary = {
+        "expected_profit": round((optimistic["profit"] + base["profit"] + pessimistic["profit"]) / 3, 2),
+        "best_profit": optimistic["profit"],
+        "worst_profit": pessimistic["profit"],
+        "base_profit": base["profit"],
+        "variance": round(
+            ((optimistic["profit"] - base["profit"]) ** 2 +
+             (base["profit"] - base["profit"]) ** 2 +
+             (pessimistic["profit"] - base["profit"]) ** 2) / 3, 2
+        ),
+        "base_revenue": base_revenue,
+        "base_cost": base_cost,
+        "months": months,
+    }
+
+    return {
+        "scenarios": scenarios_list,
+        "chart_data": chart_data,
+        "summary": summary,
+    }