cma-management/backend/scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py

"""保本点(盈亏平衡)派生KPI执行器 — 管理会计OS (cma-bep-kpi 2026-09-08)

按财务Bot权威口径（陕西酣客_保本点分析_2026年1-7月.md）自动计算并落库六个派生KPI：
  F_BEP_REVENUE      保本销售额(万元)     = 月均固定成本 ÷ 边际贡献率 (账面口径,含折旧)
  F_BEP_COVER        保本覆盖率(%)       = 月均销售 ÷ 保本销售额 × 100  (正向: >=100绿 >=85黄 <85红)
  F_BEP_GAP          保本缺口(%)         = (保本销售额-月均销售) ÷ 保本销售额 × 100 (反向: <=0绿 <=15黄 >15红)
  F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH 现金保本销售额(万元) = (月均固定成本-月均折旧) ÷ 边际贡献率 (现金口径,中性无阈值)
  F_BEP_COVER_CASH   现金保本覆盖率(%)   = 月均销售 ÷ 现金保本销售额 × 100 (正向: >=100绿 >=85黄 <85红)
  F_BEP_VC_RATE      变动成本率(%)       = 见下方「实体口径注册表」 (YTD累计; 保本公式分母,无阈值)
  F_BEP_REBATE       实测渠补率(%)       = e1 专用展示 chip（Σ571103÷Σ5001,YTD; e2 无渠补科目 ⇒ NULL）

实体口径注册表（2026-10-03 新增，任务 finance-20261003-cvp-fix-and-bohai-coverage-fullstack）：
  · entity 1 陕西酣客：变动成本率 = Σ(5401销货成本 + 5403税金及附加 + 571103渠补 − 530103厂补) ÷ Σ5001贷方
    〔⑤口径统一 2026-10-03，任总 18:00「统一」；勾稽：808.80 − 672.65 − 224.16 = −88.01 ≈ −88.00 营业利润〕；
    固定成本 = 5601% + 5602% + 5603% 净额；折旧剔除 = 560213（管理费用-折旧叶子）。
    实测渠补率 F_BEP_REBATE 保留（仍是渠补单一事实源），但**不再充当变动成本率**。
  · entity 2 博海：**无渠补科目(571103)**，变动成本 = Σ6401借（主营业务成本），
    变动成本率 = Σ6401借 ÷ Σ6001贷；固定成本 = (6601 销售费用 + 6602 管理费用 + 6603 财务费用) 净额；
    折旧剔除 = 1602 累计折旧「当期贷方发生额」（博海科目表只到 4 位一级，无费用类折旧叶子；
    2026-08 起博海 1602 无计提行，剔除额为 0 —— 见回报件）。
    博海明细账的期间损益结转腿（summary='结转期间损溢'，账套内 **未** 标 carry_forward=1）
    必须显式剔除，否则净额恒 0 会把已结账期间清零（口径见
    /srv/hermes/wisdom/_decisions/cma-expense-profit-net-caliber-20261002.md）。

口径（与财务Bot报告一致）：
- 销售收入: entity1 = subject_code='5001'(主营业务收入) 贷方合计；entity2 = '6001' 贷方合计。当年1月至目标月 YTD 月均
- 固定成本: entity1 = subject_code LIKE '5601%'/'5602%'/'5603%'(销售/管理/财务费用，含560213折旧) 借−贷净额合计(carry_forward=0)，YTD 月均〔⑤扩容〕
            entity2 = 6601/6602/6603 借−贷净额合计（同上，但另需剔除结转腿）
- 折旧:     entity1 = '560213' 借−贷净额；entity2 = '1602' 贷方发生额（现金口径剔除项）
- 变动成本率: **完整实测口径**（⑤口径统一 2026-10-03，任总 18:00「统一」；勾稽件 _reports/陕西酣客_边际贡献式损益表_20261003.md）
            酣客 = Σ(5401销货成本 + 5403税金及附加 + 571103渠补 − 530103厂补) ÷ Σ(5001 贷方) × 100，YTD，保留 2 位小数。
            `POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT = 84.61` 政策常量**仅作对照展示**（写进返回值 rebate_policy_pct / remark），
            **不参与任何计算**；`--rebate-rate` 显式传值时视为人工诊断覆盖（正常调用不再使用）。
- 边际贡献率 = 100 − 变动成本率
- fail-closed 边界（2026-10-02 裁定）：某期 571103 或 5001 缺数/为 0 ⇒ **该期不出保本值**
  （六条派生行写 actual_value=NULL + data_status='pending' + remark 注明「变动成本率不可得」），
  **不得静默回落 84.61 常量**；累计口径天然平滑单月波动（8 月单月 571103/5001=134% 不影响累计值）。
- fail-closed 边界 ②（2026-10-03 裁定，本单）：**变动成本率 ≥ 100% ⇔ 边际贡献率 ≤ 0 ⇒ 保本点不适用**。
  该期 五条保本派生值（REVENUE/COVER/GAP/REVENUE_CASH/COVER_CASH）写 actual_value=NULL +
  data_status='pending' + remark 含「边际贡献非正，保本点不适用」，**禁止回落 0.0**
  （0.0 会被前端显示成「月保本 0 万、覆盖率 0%」，语义完全错误）；变动成本率本身照常落库。
  与既有 fail-closed（缺数/为 0）**同一处理路径风格**，仅文案与触发条件不同。
- 目标月:   --period 显式指定；默认自动选最近「已结账」完整月（当月跳过）。
            结账信号优先：DB 损益结转凭证(carry_forward=1 & 本年利润科目 3103(酣客)/4103(博海)) → check.md 文件；
            两者皆无时才退回旧「销售额阈值」兜底（销售低 ≠ 未结账，仅保底用，日志标注依据）
- 单位:     voucher 金额为元，聚合后 /10000 → 万元
- 幂等:     同 kpi_id+period+source_type='derived' 存在则更新，可安全重跑；
            **不降级**（ASK-20260924-10 / 2026-09-24）：值未变或值变都不回写 data_status，
            保留既有状态（含人工/任总放行的 verified），避免「人工转正 → 次日派生静默打回 pending」。
            值变时 remark 留痕并落复核提示件（见 _reports/fullstack-<YYYYMMDD>-bep-value-changed-review.md）。
            **例外**：fail-closed 两条路径（不可得 / 边际贡献非正）按裁定显式写 data_status='pending'。
- 只写 source_type='derived' 行；不触碰 auto_collect/manual/excel/ledger 行；不改 collector 逻辑

用法:
  venv/bin/python3 scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py                    # 自动选目标月
  venv/bin/python3 scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py --period 2026-07   # 指定期间(实跑验证用)
  venv/bin/python3 scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py --entity 2 --period 2026-08   # 博海（新口径）
  venv/bin/python3 scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py --entity 1 --rebate-rate 84.61
  venv/bin/python3 scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py --dry-run          # 只计算不落库
"""
import argparse
import logging
import os
import sys
from datetime import datetime, date

sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))

import re
from sqlalchemy import func, or_
from app.database import get_session_local
from app.models import KPIValue, KPIDefinition, VoucherDetail, KPIAlert
# 裁定 R1（2026-09-19 财务口径）：demo 账套不产生业务预警（派生值仍落库，仅跳过预警同步）
from app.utils.alert_entity_scope import is_excluded_entity

logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(message)s")
logger = logging.getLogger("cma.bep_deriver")

# 厂家政策渠补率（定死不可谈判，财务Bot报告权威值 2026-09-08）
# ⚠️ 2026-10-02 起**仅作对照展示**（返回值 rebate_policy_pct / remark），不参与任何计算。
#    参与计算的渠补率 = 逐期实测累计（见 compute_rebate_rate / 文件头「渠补率」条）。
POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT = 84.61

# 派生KPI 编码 → (kpi_code, 名称)
TARGET_KPIS = [
    ("F_BEP_REVENUE", "保本销售额"),
    ("F_BEP_COVER", "保本覆盖率"),
    ("F_BEP_GAP", "保本缺口"),
    ("F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "现金口径保本销售额"),
    ("F_BEP_COVER_CASH", "现金口径保本覆盖率"),
    ("F_BEP_VC_RATE", "变动成本率"),
    ("F_BEP_REBATE", "实测渠补率"),
]

# 变动成本率 KPI（⑤ 口径统一 2026-10-03：保本公式分子口径 = 销货成本+税金及附加+渠补−厂补）
VC_RATE_KPI = "F_BEP_VC_RATE"

# 实测渠补率 KPI 编码（卡面单一事实源；无阈值，不参与预警级别判定；⑤ 后**不再充当变动成本率**）
REBATE_KPI = "F_BEP_REBATE"

# 保本口径 KPI（缺 F_BEP_REBATE 定义时不阻断派生主流程，见 run_derive 告警分支）
CORE_KPI_CODES = [c for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS if c != REBATE_KPI]

# 现金口径 KPI 编码（计算路径独立于账面，remark 文案用现金口径）
CASH_CODES = {"F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH", "F_BEP_COVER_CASH"}

SALES_CODE = "5001"          # 主营业务收入（酣客）
ADMIN_PREFIX = "5602"        # 管理费用（含折旧叶子560213）
DEP_SUBJECT = "560213"       # 管理费用-折旧（现金口径剔除项，eq 精确匹配防 5602130 误含）
REBATE_CODE = "571103"       # 渠补/捐赠支出（校验用，不直接进公式）
CARRY_SUBJECT = "3103"       # 本年利润（carry_forward=1 且该科目 = 该期损益结转凭证）

# ── 实体口径注册表（2026-10-03）——单一事实源见 app/utils/bep_caliber.py ─────────
# 变动成本率（rate）= numerator ÷ denominator（YTD 累计）：
#   · 酣客：Σ571103借方(渠补) ÷ Σ5001贷方(收入)      —— 2026-10-02 财务裁定；结转账腿已由 carry_forward=1 标识
#   · 博海：Σ6401借方(主营业务成本) ÷ Σ6001贷方(收入) —— 2026-10-03 财务裁定「新口径，勿套酣客渠补公式」
# exclude_closing：该账套的「期间损益结转腿」是否需要用 summary 显式剔除
#   （博海账套的结转行 carry_forward 仍是 0，不剔除则已结账期间净额恒 0 ⇒ 指标被清零）
# 同表被 backend/app/api/dashboard.py::/bep-card 共用（口径不漂移）。
from app.utils.bep_caliber import (          # noqa: E402  （紧随 sys.path 之后导入）
    CLOSING_SUMMARY_LIKE, ENTITY_CALIBERS, caliber_for, fixed_cost_spec,
)

# 智享通落盘目录（与 app/api/data.py 的 ZXT_LANDING_DIR 一致）——结账信号次选来源
ZXT_LANDING_DIR = "/root/WB_WS/_data/zxt-hanke"

# ── ASK-20260924-10（2026-09-24 任总放行）：派生器不得静默降级已转正行 ──────────
# 缺陷（原实现）：upsert 分支无条件 `existing.data_status = "pending"`（与值是否变化无关）
#   ⇒ 人工/任总放行的值转正为 verified 后，次日 06:35 派生器一跑就被打回 pending，
#     看板 / 预警 / Bot 全链路再次读不到，交付在 24 小时内静默消失。
# 修正口径（本单指定，属待财务复核的裁定点）：
#   · 值未变 → 不写 data_status（保留既有，含 verified）；source_batch/remark/actual_value 照旧更新
#   · 值变   → 同样不写 data_status（不降级，避免看板数字忽现忽隐）
#              + remark 追加「值已更新(batch=…, 旧X → 新Y) 待财务复核」+ 落复核提示件
#   · 新期间（原本无行）→ 维持 pending（9-14 复核流入口不变）
# 提示件为**报告类**，落 `_reports/` 而非对方队列根（避免误唤醒其他 Bot）；
# 落点可用环境变量 BEP_REVIEW_NOTE_DIR 覆盖（沙箱/测试用）。
DEFAULT_REVIEW_NOTE_DIR = "/root/.hermes/profiles/wecom-finance/pending-tasks/_reports"


def _review_note_dir() -> str:
    return os.environ.get("BEP_REVIEW_NOTE_DIR") or DEFAULT_REVIEW_NOTE_DIR


def _write_value_changed_note(entity_id: int, period: str, batch: str, changed: list):
    """值变时落「待财务复核」提示件。写失败只告警，绝不阻断派生主流程。"""
    if not changed:
        return None
    try:
        d = _review_note_dir()
        os.makedirs(d, exist_ok=True)
        path = os.path.join(d, "fullstack-%s-bep-value-changed-review.md" % datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d"))
        lines = [
            "# 保本派生值变动 · 待财务复核（派生器自动生成；报告类产物，非队列任务）",
            "",
            "- 生成器: `backend/scripts/kpi_bep_deriver.py`（值变路径，ASK-20260924-10 口径）",
            "- entity_id: %s ｜ period: %s ｜ batch: %s" % (entity_id, period, batch),
            "- 生成时刻: %s" % datetime.now().strftime("%F %T"),
            "- 口径: 值变**不降级** data_status（保留既有，含 verified），仅 remark 留痕 + 请财务复核",
            "",
            "| kpi_code | 旧值 | 新值 | data_status(写后) |",
            "|---|---|---|---|",
        ]
        for c in changed:
            lines.append("| %s | %s | %s | %s |" % (c["code"], c["old"], c["new"], c["status"]))
        lines += ["", "> 本件落在 `_reports/`（报告类），不进队列根，避免误唤醒其他 Bot。", ""]
        with open(path, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
            f.write("\n".join(lines))
        logger.warning("值变留痕：复核提示件已落 %s（%d 个 KPI）", path, len(changed))
        return path
    except Exception as e:  # 提示件失败不影响派生落库
        logger.error("值变复核提示件写入失败（不阻断派生）: %s", e)
        return None


def _month_range(period: str):
    """返回该期间当年1月1日到月末的日期边界（用于 voucher_date 过滤兜底）"""
    y = int(period[:4])
    m = int(period[5:7])
    start = date(y, 1, 1)
    # 月末
    if m == 12:
        end = date(y, 12, 31)
    else:
        end = date(y, m + 1, 1).replace(day=1)  # 次月1日
        from datetime import timedelta
        end = end - timedelta(days=1)
    return start, end


def _sum_field(db, entity_id: int, period_from: str, period_to: str,
               field: str, subject_filter=None, *, exclude_closing: bool = False,
               subject_filters=None) -> float:
    """聚合 voucher_details 金额（元）。subject_filter: ('eq', code) / ('like', prefix)

    field="net" = 借−贷 净额（口径4：费用/损益一律净额）。
    ⚠️ 净额只在 carry_forward==0 行域成立（含结转腿时损益类净额恒 0）
       —— 见 /srv/hermes/wisdom/_decisions/cma-expense-profit-net-caliber-20261002.md。
    exclude_closing=True 时再显式剔除「期间损益结转腿」（summary 含「结转」）——
    用于结转行未被标 carry_forward=1 的账套（博海），否则净额恒 0 会把已结账期间清零。
    subject_filters: [('like','6601'), ('like','6602'), ...] 多科目 OR（与 subject_filter 二选一）
    """
    expr = (VoucherDetail.debit_amount - VoucherDetail.credit_amount
            if field == "net" else getattr(VoucherDetail, field))
    q = db.query(func.sum(expr)).filter(
        VoucherDetail.entity_id == entity_id,
        VoucherDetail.carry_forward == 0,
        VoucherDetail.period >= period_from,
        VoucherDetail.period <= period_to,
    )
    if explicit := subject_filters:
        q = q.filter(or_(*[_subject_clause(k, c) for k, c in explicit]))
    if subject_filter:
        kind, code = subject_filter
        q = q.filter(_subject_clause(kind, code))
    if exclude_closing:
        q = q.filter(or_(VoucherDetail.summary.is_(None),
                         ~VoucherDetail.summary.like(CLOSING_SUMMARY_LIKE)))
    val = q.scalar()
    return float(val or 0.0)


def _subject_clause(kind: str, code: str):
    """科目过滤谓词：('eq', code) 精确 / ('like', prefix) 前缀"""
    if kind == "eq":
        return VoucherDetail.subject_code == code
    if kind == "like":
        return VoucherDetail.subject_code.like(code + "%")
    raise ValueError(f"未知科目过滤类型: {kind}")


# 带号科目项的字段映射（terms 记法见 bep_caliber.ENTITY_CALIBERS）
_TERM_FIELD = {
    "debit": lambda: VoucherDetail.debit_amount,
    "credit": lambda: VoucherDetail.credit_amount,
    "net": lambda: VoucherDetail.debit_amount - VoucherDetail.credit_amount,
}


def _sum_terms(db, entity_id: int, period_from: str, period_to: str,
               terms, *, exclude_closing: bool = False) -> float:
    """按「带号科目项」聚合金额（元）。terms = [(sign, code, field), ...]

      · sign='+' ⇒ 加该科目 field 发生额；sign='-' ⇒ 减之
      · field ∈ {debit, credit, net}
      · code 以 '%' 结尾时按前缀（like）匹配，否则精确匹配
    ⑤ 口径统一（2026-10-03）：酣客变动成本 = (Σ5401借 + Σ5403借 + Σ571103借 − Σ530103贷)。
    """
    total = 0.0
    for sign, code, field in terms:
        expr = _TERM_FIELD[field]()
        q = db.query(func.sum(expr)).filter(
            VoucherDetail.entity_id == entity_id,
            VoucherDetail.carry_forward == 0,
            VoucherDetail.period >= period_from,
            VoucherDetail.period <= period_to,
        )
        q = (q.filter(VoucherDetail.subject_code.like(code)) if code.endswith("%")
             else q.filter(VoucherDetail.subject_code == code))
        if exclude_closing:
            q = q.filter(or_(VoucherDetail.summary.is_(None),
                             ~VoucherDetail.summary.like(CLOSING_SUMMARY_LIKE)))
        v = float(q.scalar() or 0.0)
        total += v if sign == "+" else -v
    return total


def compute_margin_rate(db, entity_id: int, period_from: str, period_to: str,
                        caliber: dict = None) -> dict:
    """变动成本率（YTD 累计，2 位小数）—— 按实体口径现算。

    · 酣客(entity1)：Σ571103借方 ÷ Σ5001贷方（实测渠补率）
    · 博海(entity2)：Σ6401借方 ÷ Σ6001贷方（主营业务成本率）

    返回兼容既有键名：{'available', 'rebate_pct', 'rebate_sum_w', 'sales_sum_w', 'reason'}
    （rebate_sum_w = 分子/变动成本，sales_sum_w = 分母/收入基数；供卡面/报告沿用）。

    **fail-closed**：分子或分母缺数/为 0 ⇒ available=False, rebate_pct=None
    （调用方不得回落政策常量，须按「不可得」处理）。
    """
    cal = caliber or ENTITY_CALIBERS[entity_id]
    num_raw = _sum_terms(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
                         cal["varcost_terms"], exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"])
    den_raw = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
                         cal["revenue_field"], cal["revenue_filter"],
                         exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"])
    num_w, den_w = num_raw / 10000.0, den_raw / 10000.0
    info = {
        "rebate_sum_w": round(num_w, 2),
        "sales_sum_w": round(den_w, 2),
        "rebate_pct": None,
        "available": False,
        "reason": "",
        "label": cal["margin_label"],
        "desc": cal["margin_desc"],
    }
    if den_w <= 0:
        info["reason"] = f"{cal['margin_label']}不可得：{cal['revenue_filter'][1]} 累计缺数或为 0"
        return info
    if num_w <= 0:
        info["reason"] = f"{cal['margin_label']}不可得：变动成本累计缺数或为 0"
        return info
    info["available"] = True
    info["rebate_pct"] = round(num_w / den_w * 100.0, 2)
    return info


def compute_rebate_rate(db, entity_id: int, period_from: str, period_to: str) -> dict:
    """实测累计**渠补率**（F_BEP_REBATE，2026-10-02 口径）—— 酣客(entity1) 专用。

    渠补率(实测) = Σ(571103 借方) ÷ Σ(5001 贷方) × 100，期间 = 年初至当期（YTD），保留 2 位小数。
      · 571103 = 渠补/捐赠支出（损益类费用科目）⇒ 本期发生额落**借方**；
      · 5001   = 主营业务收入 ⇒ 本期发生额落**贷方**；
      · 行域 = carry_forward=0（排除期间损益结转腿）。

    ⚠️ ⑤ 口径统一（2026-10-03）后：本函数只算**渠补口径**，是 F_BEP_REBATE 的单一事实源；
       保本公式所用的**变动成本率**（销货成本+税金及附加+渠补−厂补）见 compute_margin_rate。
       博海（rebate_terms=None）无渠补科目 ⇒ 返回 available=False（F_BEP_REBATE=NULL）。
    """
    cal = ENTITY_CALIBERS.get(entity_id)
    if not cal or not cal.get("rebate_terms"):
        return {"available": False, "rebate_pct": None, "rebate_sum_w": 0.0,
                "sales_sum_w": 0.0, "label": "实测渠补率",
                "reason": f"{cal['name'] if cal else entity_id} 无渠补科目"}
    num_raw = _sum_terms(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
                         cal["rebate_terms"], exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"])
    den_raw = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
                         cal["revenue_field"], cal["revenue_filter"],
                         exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"])
    num_w, den_w = num_raw / 10000.0, den_raw / 10000.0
    info = {"rebate_sum_w": round(num_w, 2), "sales_sum_w": round(den_w, 2),
            "rebate_pct": None, "available": False, "reason": "", "label": "实测渠补率"}
    if den_w <= 0:
        info["reason"] = "渠补率不可得：Σ5001贷累计缺数或为 0"
        return info
    if num_w <= 0:
        info["reason"] = "渠补率不可得：Σ571103借累计缺数或为 0"
        return info
    info["available"] = True
    info["rebate_pct"] = round(num_w / den_w * 100.0, 2)
    return info


def _month_sales(db, entity_id: int, period: str, caliber: dict = None) -> float:
    """单月销售收入（万元）——用于目标月完整度判断（按实体口径的收入科目）"""
    cal = caliber or ENTITY_CALIBERS.get(entity_id) or ENTITY_CALIBERS[1]
    return _sum_field(db, entity_id, period, period, cal["revenue_field"],
                      cal["revenue_filter"], exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"]) / 10000.0


def _is_period_closed(db, entity_id: int, period: str, caliber: dict = None) -> tuple:
    """判断该期间是否已结账（损益结转已完成）。返回 (bool, 依据说明)。

    主信号（DB）: voucher_details 存在 carry_forward=1 且 subject_code=该账套本年利润科目
                  （酣客 3103 / 博海 4103）= 该期损益结转凭证已生成
    次信号（文件）: {landing_dir}/{YYYY.MM}/check.md 同时含「本期: PASS」与「损益结转: PASS」
                    （仅酣客有智享通落盘目录；博海 landing_dir=None ⇒ 跳过该信号）
    均不成立 → (False, "")。任何读取异常均吞掉，不影响主流程。
    """
    cal = caliber or ENTITY_CALIBERS.get(entity_id) or ENTITY_CALIBERS[1]
    # 主信号：DB 损益结转凭证
    try:
        hit = db.query(VoucherDetail.id).filter(
            VoucherDetail.entity_id == entity_id,
            VoucherDetail.carry_forward == 1,
            VoucherDetail.subject_code == cal["closing_subject"],
            VoucherDetail.period == period,
        ).first()
        if hit:
            return True, "DB损益结转"
    except Exception as e:  # 查询异常不阻断，降级到文件信号
        logger.warning("结账信号(DB)查询失败 period=%s: %s", period, e)

    # 次信号：智享通落盘 check.md（仅酣客）
    landing = cal.get("landing_dir")
    try:
        if landing:
            path = os.path.join(landing, period.replace("-", "."), "check.md")
            if os.path.exists(path):
                with open(path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as f:
                    txt = f.read()
                if "本期: PASS" in txt and "损益结转: PASS" in txt:
                    return True, "check.md"
    except Exception:
        pass  # 文件缺失/读取失败一律忽略

    return False, ""


def _pick_target_period(db, entity_id: int, now: date, caliber: dict = None) -> str:
    """自动选择目标月：跳过当月。

    判定顺序（2026-09-12 修订）:
      1. 结账信号优先 —— 按 desc 返回第一个 _is_period_closed 为真的月；
         结账成立时不再用销售额做任何筛选（销售低 ≠ 未结账，历史缺陷根因）
      2. 所有候选月均无结账信号 → 退回旧「销售额 < 近6月均×30%」兜底（日志标注『依据销售额兜底』）
    """
    cal = caliber or ENTITY_CALIBERS.get(entity_id) or ENTITY_CALIBERS[1]
    # 收集已有数据月份（5001 贷方）
    rows = db.query(VoucherDetail.period).filter(
        VoucherDetail.entity_id == entity_id,
        VoucherDetail.period.like("%-__"),
    ).distinct().order_by(VoucherDetail.period.desc()).all()
    periods = [r[0] for r in rows if r[0] and len(r[0]) == 7]
    if not periods:
        logger.warning("voucher_details 无 period 数据，无法自动选月")
        return now.strftime("%Y-%m")

    # 过滤掉未来/当月（当月未结束数据不全）
    cur = now.strftime("%Y-%m")
    candidates = [p for p in periods if p < cur]
    if not candidates:
        candidates = [p for p in periods if p <= cur]
    if not candidates:
        candidates = periods

    # 1) 结账信号优先（DB损益结转 → check.md），命中即采用
    for p in candidates:
        closed, reason = _is_period_closed(db, entity_id, p, cal)
        if closed:
            logger.info("目标月 %s 判定已结账（依据：%s），采用", p, reason)
            return p

    # 2) 兜底：无任何结账信号时，退回旧销售额阈值逻辑
    logger.warning("候选月 %s 均无结账信号(DB损益结转/check.md)，退回销售额阈值兜底",
                   ", ".join(candidates[:6]))

    # 参考月均：候选月中最近 6 个不同月的月销售
    ref_months = []
    for p in periods:
        if p >= cur:
            continue
        s = _month_sales(db, entity_id, p, cal)
        ref_months.append((p, s))
        if len(ref_months) >= 6:
            break
    ref_avg = (sum(s for _, s in ref_months) / len(ref_months)) if ref_months else None

    for p in candidates:
        s = _month_sales(db, entity_id, p, cal)
        if s <= 0:
            continue  # 该月无销售，往前找
        if ref_avg and s < ref_avg * 0.3:
            logger.info("目标月 %s 销售 %.1f万 < 参考月均 %.1f万*30%%，依据销售额兜底判定未结账，回退",
                        p, s, ref_avg)
            continue
        logger.info("目标月 %s 依据销售额兜底采用", p)
        return p
    return candidates[0]


def _eval_static_threshold(value: float, kpi) -> tuple:
    """按 KPI 定义 threshold_green/yellow/red 判定级别（绿→黄→红，命中即止）。
    与 alert_generator._check_threshold 语义一致。green=正常不落预警。"""
    for level, field in (("green", "threshold_green"), ("yellow", "threshold_yellow"),
                         ("red", "threshold_red")):
        expr = getattr(kpi, field, None)
        if not expr:
            continue
        m = re.match(r"(>=|<=|>|<|=|!=)\s*([\d.]+)", str(expr).strip())
        if not m:
            continue
        op, val = m.group(1), float(m.group(2))
        hit = {
            ">=": value >= val, "<=": value <= val,
            ">": value > val, "<": value < val,
            "=": value == val, "!=": value != val,
        }[op]
        if hit:
            level_names = {"green": "正常", "yellow": "预警", "red": "紧急"}
            msg = (f"KPI当前值 {value:.2f}，触发{level_names[level]}阈值 ({expr})")
            return level, msg
    return None, None


def run_derive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, rebate_rate_pct: float = None,
               write_kpi: bool = True) -> dict:
    """计算并落库六个派生KPI（账面3条+现金2条+变动成本率1条）。返回结果摘要。

    实体口径见 ENTITY_CALIBERS（entity1 酣客=渠补率；entity2 博海=主营业务成本率）。
    变动成本率（2026-10-02 裁定）：默认按 YTD 从 voucher_details **现算**，
    政策常量 84.61% 仅作对照返回（rebate_policy_pct，仅 entity1 有对照物）。
    显式传 rebate_rate_pct（`--rebate-rate`）时视为人工诊断覆盖（仅 entity1 语境）。
    fail-closed ①：变动成本率不可得且无人工覆盖 ⇒ 该期不出保本值（六行 pending/NULL）。
    fail-closed ②（2026-10-03）：变动成本率 ≥100%（边际贡献率 ≤0）⇒ 五条保本值 NULL +
    remark「边际贡献非正，保本点不适用」，**禁写 0.0**。
    """
    cal = ENTITY_CALIBERS.get(entity_id)
    if cal is None:
        raise RuntimeError(f"entity={entity_id} 未注册 BEP 口径（见 ENTITY_CALIBERS）")

    kpis = {k.kpi_code: k for k in db.query(KPIDefinition).filter(
        KPIDefinition.entity_id == entity_id,
        KPIDefinition.kpi_code.in_([c for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS]),
        KPIDefinition.status == "active",
    ).all()}
    missing = [c for c in CORE_KPI_CODES if c not in kpis]
    if missing:
        raise RuntimeError(f"entity={entity_id} 缺少派生KPI定义: {missing}")
    if REBATE_KPI not in kpis:
        # 变动成本率定义缺失不阻断保本主流程（部署顺序容错），但必须显式告警：
        # 卡面此时取不到 rebate_pct（单一事实源缺失），需尽快补 bep_kpi_defs*/rebate 种子 SQL。
        logger.error("entity=%s 缺少 %s 定义（见 scripts/sql/bep_kpi_defs*.sql）；"
                     "本期跳过变动成本率落库，卡面将判「不可得」", entity_id, REBATE_KPI)

    year = period[:4]
    period_from = f"{year}-01"
    period_to = period
    months = int(period[5:7])  # YTD 月数（1月=1 ... 7月=7）

    # 1. 取数（元 → 万元）——按实体口径
    #    固定成本经 bep_caliber.fixed_cost_spec() 唯一解析口：e1 前缀净额 / e2 带号科目项仅借方（§4-1）
    fix_mode, fix_spec = fixed_cost_spec(cal)
    sales_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
                             cal["revenue_field"], cal["revenue_filter"],
                             exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"]) / 10000.0
    if fix_mode == "terms":
        admin_sum_w = _sum_terms(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, fix_spec,
                                 exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"]) / 10000.0
    else:
        admin_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, "net",
                                 subject_filters=fix_spec,
                                 exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"]) / 10000.0
    dep_sum_w = _sum_field(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to,
                           cal["dep_field"], cal["dep_filter"],
                           exclude_closing=cal["exclude_closing"]) / 10000.0

    sales_avg = sales_sum_w / months
    admin_avg = admin_sum_w / months
    dep_avg = dep_sum_w / months
    cash_admin_avg = admin_avg - dep_avg  # 现金口径固定成本（剔除折旧纸面费用）

    # 2. 变动成本率（⑤ 后=销货成本+税金及附加+渠补−厂补 完整口径）：默认逐期实测累计
    rebate_info = compute_margin_rate(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to, cal)
    calc_pct = rebate_info["rebate_pct"]
    # ⑤：渠补率（e1 专用；e2 无 ⇒ available=False）。F_BEP_REBATE 专用，独立于上面变动成本率。
    rebate_kpi_info = compute_rebate_rate(db, entity_id, period_from, period_to)
    if rebate_rate_pct is not None:
        rebate_info = dict(rebate_info, available=True, rebate_pct=round(float(rebate_rate_pct), 2),
                           reason="人工覆盖（--rebate-rate）")
        logger.warning("变动成本率使用人工覆盖值 %.2f%%（YTD 实算值 %s）", rebate_rate_pct,
                       ("%.2f%%" % calc_pct) if calc_pct is not None else "不可得")
    elif not rebate_info["available"]:
        # fail-closed：不出保本值，绝不静默回落政策常量 84.61
        logger.error("period=%s %s ⇒ 本期不出保本值（fail-closed，不回落政策常量）",
                     period, rebate_info["reason"])
        return _fail_closed_rebate_unavailable(db, entity_id, period, months, rebate_info, cal,
                                              kpis, write_kpi)

    rebate_pct = rebate_info["rebate_pct"]
    cm_pct = 100.0 - rebate_pct  # 边际贡献率(%) = 100 − 变动成本率

    # 2b. fail-closed ②（2026-10-03）：边际贡献率 ≤ 0 ⇒ 保本点不适用（禁写 0.0）
    if cm_pct <= 0:
        logger.error("period=%s %s=%.2f%% ≥100%% ⇒ 边际贡献非正，保本点不适用（fail-closed，禁写 0.0）",
                     period, cal["margin_label"], rebate_pct)
        return _fail_closed_cm_non_positive(db, entity_id, period, months, rebate_info, cal,
                                            kpis, write_kpi, sales_avg=sales_avg,
                                            admin_avg=admin_avg, dep_avg=dep_avg,
                                            rebate_kpi_info=rebate_kpi_info)

    # 2c. fail-closed ③（2026-10-03，同族补充）：固定成本退化 ⇒ 保本点不适用
    #     边际贡献率 > 0 但分子（固定成本）退化时，公式给出 保本额≈0 / 覆盖率趋于无穷，
    #     与 0.0 兜底同属「语义崩溃」类（实测：博海 2026-01 账面净固定成本月均 0.01万≈0、
    #     现金固定成本月均 −0.14万 ⇒ 公式值 保本 0.1万 / 覆盖率 175981% / 现金保本 −2.3万）。
    #     判据（同族、无新增经验常量）：月均账面固定成本 ≤ 0 **或** 月均现金固定成本 ≤ 0。
    if admin_avg <= 0 or cash_admin_avg <= 0:
        logger.error("period=%s %s月均=%.2f万、现金固定成本月均=%.2f万（含折旧月均%.2f万）"
                     "⇒ 固定成本退化，保本点不适用（fail-closed）",
                     period, cal["fixed_label"], admin_avg, cash_admin_avg, dep_avg)
        return _fail_closed_cm_non_positive(db, entity_id, period, months, rebate_info, cal,
                                            kpis, write_kpi, sales_avg=sales_avg,
                                            admin_avg=admin_avg, dep_avg=dep_avg, guard="fixed",
                                            cash_admin_avg=cash_admin_avg,
                                            rebate_kpi_info=rebate_kpi_info)

    # 3. 派生计算（万元 / %）——账面3条路径不变；现金口径在账面基础上剔除折旧
    bep = admin_avg / (cm_pct / 100.0)
    cover = (sales_avg / bep * 100.0) if bep > 0 else 0.0
    gap = ((bep - sales_avg) / bep * 100.0) if bep > 0 else 0.0
    cash_bep = cash_admin_avg / (cm_pct / 100.0)
    cash_cover = (sales_avg / cash_bep * 100.0) if cash_bep > 0 else 0.0

    values = {
        "F_BEP_REVENUE": round(bep, 1),
        "F_BEP_COVER": round(cover, 1),
        "F_BEP_GAP": round(gap, 1),
        "F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH": round(cash_bep, 1),
        "F_BEP_COVER_CASH": round(cash_cover, 1),
        "F_BEP_VC_RATE": round(rebate_pct, 2),   # 变动成本率（⑤ 保本分子口径）
        "F_BEP_REBATE": (round(rebate_kpi_info["rebate_pct"], 2)
                         if rebate_kpi_info["available"] else None),  # 实测渠补率（e1；e2=NULL）
    }

    # 4. upsert kpi_values (source_type='derived'，幂等)
    batch = f"bep-{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}"
    written = {}
    value_rows = {}
    changed = []
    for code, _ in TARGET_KPIS:
        kpi = kpis.get(code)
        if kpi is None:  # 定义缺失（仅可能为 F_BEP_REBATE，见上方告警）
            written[code] = "no-definition"
            continue
        if code == VC_RATE_KPI:
            remark = (f"变动成本率(YTD累计): {cal['margin_desc']} = "
                      f"{rebate_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 ÷ {rebate_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 "
                      f"× 100 = {rebate_pct:.2f}%（⑤口径统一：销货成本+税金及附加+渠补−厂补；"
                      f"保本额 = 固定成本月均 ÷ (1−变动成本率)）")
        elif code == REBATE_KPI:
            if rebate_kpi_info["available"]:
                rr = rebate_kpi_info["rebate_pct"]
                remark = (f"实测渠补率(YTD累计): Σ571103借方 {rebate_kpi_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 ÷ "
                          f"Σ5001贷方 {rebate_kpi_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 × 100 = {rr:.2f}%"
                          f"（政策常量 {POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}% 仅供对照；⑤ 后**不再充当变动成本率**，"
                          f"变动成本率见 F_BEP_VC_RATE）")
            else:
                remark = f"{cal['name']}无渠补科目（实测渠补率不适用）；⑤ 后变动成本率见 F_BEP_VC_RATE"
        elif code in CASH_CODES:
            if entity_id == 1:
                remark = (f"现金口径: 管理费月均{admin_avg:.2f}万-折旧月均{dep_avg:.2f}万"
                          f"=固定现金{cash_admin_avg:.2f}万 ÷ 边际贡献率{cm_pct:.2f}% → 保本{cash_bep:.2f}万"
                          f"（实测渠补率{rebate_pct:.2f}%）")
            else:
                remark = (f"现金口径: {cal['fixed_label']}月均{admin_avg:.2f}万-折旧月均{dep_avg:.2f}万"
                          f"=固定现金{cash_admin_avg:.2f}万 ÷ 边际贡献率{cm_pct:.2f}% → 保本{cash_bep:.2f}万"
                          f"（{cal['margin_label']}{rebate_pct:.2f}%）")
        else:
            if entity_id == 1:
                remark = (f"保本派生器: 销售月均{sales_avg:.1f}万/管理费月均{admin_avg:.1f}万/"
                          f"实测渠补率{rebate_pct:.2f}%(政策{POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}%仅对照)")
            else:
                remark = (f"保本派生器: 销售月均{sales_avg:.1f}万/{cal['fixed_label']}月均{admin_avg:.1f}万/"
                          f"{cal['margin_label']}{rebate_pct:.2f}%")
        existing = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
            KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
            KPIValue.period == period,
            KPIValue.source_type == "derived",
        ).first()
        if write_kpi:
            is_new = existing is None
            if existing:
                old_value = float(existing.actual_value) if existing.actual_value is not None else None
                nv = values[code]
                new_value = float(nv) if nv is not None else None
                value_changed = ((old_value is None) != (new_value is None)
                                 or (old_value is not None and abs(old_value - new_value) > 1e-9))
                existing.actual_value = nv
                existing.source_batch = batch
                if value_changed:
                    existing.remark = (f"{remark}｜值已更新(batch={batch}, "
                                       f"旧{old_value} → 新{new_value}) 待财务复核")
                    changed.append({"code": code, "old": old_value, "new": new_value,
                                    "status": existing.data_status})
                else:
                    existing.remark = remark
                # 2026-09-24 ASK-20260924-10：**不再**无条件 `existing.data_status = "pending"`。
                #   值未变 / 值变 一律不写 data_status ⇒ 保留既有状态（含人工放行的 verified）。
                #   原写法会让「人工转正」在次日 06:35 静默被打回 pending（看板数字忽现忽隐）。
                #   新期间（下方 else 分支）仍写 pending，复核流入口不变。
            else:
                existing = KPIValue(
                    entity_id=entity_id,
                    kpi_id=kpi.id,
                    period=period,
                    actual_value=values[code],
                    source_type="derived",
                    source_batch=batch,
                    data_status="pending",
                    remark=remark,
                )
                db.add(existing)
            db.flush()
            value_rows[kpi.id] = existing
            written[code] = "insert" if is_new else "upsert"
        else:
            written[code] = "dry-run"
    if write_kpi:
        # 5. 同步预警: 仅对本派生KPI评估 threshold（green=正常不落 pending，yellow/red 落 pending）。
        #    幂等规则：同一 KPIValue 已有同级别 pending → 保持不动（值未变不重建）；
        #    其它/旧级别 pending → resolve；最新派生行永远只留一条当前级别。
        #    R1（裁定 2026-09-19）：demo 账套不产生业务预警 → 整段预警同步跳过（派生值照落库）。
        target_sync = [] if is_excluded_entity(db, entity_id) else TARGET_KPIS
        if not target_sync:
            logger.info("demo 账套（entity=%s）跳过预警同步（R1，裁定 2026-09-19）", entity_id)
        for code, _ in target_sync:
            kpi = kpis[code]
            kpi_value = value_rows.get(kpi.id)
            if not kpi_value:
                continue
            level, msg = _eval_static_threshold(kpi_value.actual_value, kpi)
            all_pending = db.query(KPIAlert).filter(
                KPIAlert.kpi_id == kpi.id,
                KPIAlert.status == "pending",
            ).all()
            same_value = [a for a in all_pending if a.kpi_value_id == kpi_value.id]
            if level in ("yellow", "red") and any(a.alert_level == level for a in same_value):
                # 当前值级别未变 → 只清其它旧值预警，不重建
                for a in all_pending:
                    if a.kpi_value_id != kpi_value.id:
                        a.status = "resolved"
                        a.resolution = "保本派生器: 派生值更新，旧预警自动解除"
                        a.resolved_at = datetime.now()
                continue
            for a in all_pending:
                a.status = "resolved"
                a.resolution = "保本派生器: 派生值更新/级别变更，旧预警自动解除"
                a.resolved_at = datetime.now()
            if level in ("yellow", "red"):
                db.add(KPIAlert(
                    entity_id=entity_id,
                    kpi_id=kpi.id,
                    kpi_value_id=kpi_value.id,
                    alert_level=level,
                    alert_message=f"{kpi.kpi_name}[{period}] {msg}",
                    status="pending",
                ))
        db.commit()
        # 值变留痕（ASK-20260924-10）：落复核提示件（报告类 → _reports/，不进队列根）
        _write_value_changed_note(entity_id, period, batch, changed)

    return {
        "entity_id": entity_id,
        "period": period,
        "months": months,
        "data_status": "ok",
        "sales_sum_w": round(sales_sum_w, 2),
        "sales_avg": round(sales_avg, 2),
        "admin_sum_w": round(admin_sum_w, 2),
        "admin_avg": round(admin_avg, 2),
        "dep_sum_w": round(dep_sum_w, 2),
        "dep_avg": round(dep_avg, 2),
        "cash_admin_avg": round(cash_admin_avg, 2),
        "rebate_sum_w": rebate_info["rebate_sum_w"],
        "rebate_sales_base_w": rebate_info["sales_sum_w"],
        "rebate_actual_pct": rebate_pct,
        "vc_rate_pct": rebate_pct,
        "rebate_kpi_pct": (rebate_kpi_info["rebate_pct"] if rebate_kpi_info["available"] else None),
        "rebate_policy_pct": POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT,
        "rebate_source": rebate_info.get("reason") or "YTD实测累计(⑤完整口径)",
        "rebate_calc_pct": round(calc_pct, 2) if calc_pct is not None else None,
        "cm_pct": round(cm_pct, 2),
        "values": values,
        "written": written,
        "value_changed": changed,
    }


def _fail_closed_rebate_unavailable(db, entity_id: int, period: str, months: int,
                                    rebate_info: dict, cal: dict, kpis: dict,
                                    write_kpi: bool) -> dict:
    """fail-closed 落库：变动成本率不可得 ⇒ 该期不出保本值。

    六条派生行写 actual_value=NULL + data_status='pending' + remark 注明「不可得」，
    **不回落**政策常量 84.61（2026-10-02 财务裁定 / 任总 11:43 CST 放行）。
    不评估阈值、不产生/解除预警（无值 ⇒ 无级别可评）。
    """
    reason = rebate_info["reason"] or f"{cal['margin_label']}不可得"
    if entity_id == 1:
        detail = (f"{reason}；Σ571103借方 {rebate_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 / "
                  f"Σ5001贷方 {rebate_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 ⇒ 本期不出保本值（fail-closed，"
                  f"不回落政策常量 {POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}%）")
    else:
        detail = (f"{reason}；{cal['margin_desc']} = {rebate_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 / "
                  f"{rebate_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 ⇒ 本期不出保本值（fail-closed，禁回落、禁跨期）")
    batch = f"bep-{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}"
    written = {}
    if write_kpi:
        for code, _ in TARGET_KPIS:
            kpi = kpis.get(code)
            if kpi is None:
                written[code] = "no-definition"
                continue
            existing = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
                KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
                KPIValue.period == period,
                KPIValue.source_type == "derived",
            ).first()
            if existing is None:
                db.add(KPIValue(
                    entity_id=entity_id,
                    kpi_id=kpi.id,
                    period=period,
                    actual_value=None,
                    source_type="derived",
                    source_batch=batch,
                    data_status="pending",
                    remark=detail,
                ))
                written[code] = "insert"
            else:
                existing.actual_value = None
                existing.source_batch = batch
                existing.data_status = "pending"
                existing.remark = detail
                written[code] = "upsert"
        db.commit()
    else:
        written = {c: "dry-run" for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS}
    return {
        "entity_id": entity_id,
        "period": period,
        "months": months,
        "data_status": "pending",
        "rebate_unavailable": True,
        "reason": detail,
        "sales_sum_w": rebate_info["sales_sum_w"],
        "rebate_sum_w": rebate_info["rebate_sum_w"],
        "rebate_actual_pct": None,
        "rebate_policy_pct": POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT,
        "rebate_source": reason,
        "values": {},
        "written": written,
        "value_changed": [],
    }


def _fail_closed_cm_non_positive(db, entity_id: int, period: str, months: int,
                                 rebate_info: dict, cal: dict, kpis: dict, write_kpi: bool,
                                 sales_avg: float = None, admin_avg: float = None,
                                 dep_avg: float = None, guard: str = "cm",
                                 cash_admin_avg: float = None,
                                 rebate_kpi_info: dict = None) -> dict:
    """fail-closed ② 落库：保本点**不适用**（2026-10-03 财务裁定）。

    五条保本派生值（REVENUE/COVER/GAP/REVENUE_CASH/COVER_CASH）写
    actual_value=NULL + data_status='pending' + remark 含「保本点不适用」，
    **禁止回落 0.0**（0.0 会被前端显示成「月保本 0 万、覆盖率 0%」，语义完全错误）。
    变动成本率本身是可测量的 ⇒ 该 KPI 照常落库（值 + YTD 累计 remark）。
    不评估阈值、不产生/解除预警（保本值无值 ⇒ 无级别可评）。

    guard 触发条件（同族，均属「公式退化」）：
      · 'cm'    边际贡献率 ≤ 0（变动成本率 ≥ 100%）——本单裁定 ①
      · 'fixed' 月均账面固定成本 ≤ 0 ——同族补充③（分子非正 ⇒ 保本额≈0、覆盖率趋于无穷）
    """
    rebate_pct = rebate_info["rebate_pct"]
    cm_pct = round(100.0 - float(rebate_pct), 2)
    if guard == "fixed":
        detail = (f"保本点不适用（固定成本退化：{cal['fixed_label']}月均 {admin_avg:.2f}万 ≤ 0 或 "
                  f"现金固定成本月均 {cash_admin_avg:.2f}万 ≤ 0 ⇒ 分子退化，保本额≈0、覆盖率无意义；"
                  f"{cal['margin_label']} {rebate_pct:.2f}%、边际贡献率 {cm_pct:.2f}%；"
                  f"fail-closed，禁写 0.0）")
    else:
        detail = (f"边际贡献非正，保本点不适用（{cal['margin_label']} {rebate_pct:.2f}% ≥ 100%，"
                  f"边际贡献率 {cm_pct:.2f}% ⇒ 每增一元销售不产生正贡献，保本点无经济意义；"
                  f"fail-closed，禁写 0.0）")
    vc_rate_remark = (f"变动成本率(YTD累计): {cal['margin_desc']} = "
                      f"{rebate_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 ÷ {rebate_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 "
                      f"× 100 = {rebate_pct:.2f}%（⑤口径统一；保本点因边际贡献非正/固定成本退化不适用）")
    if rebate_kpi_info and rebate_kpi_info.get("available"):
        rebate_remark = (f"实测渠补率(YTD累计): Σ571103借方 {rebate_kpi_info['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 ÷ "
                         f"Σ5001贷方 {rebate_kpi_info['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 × 100 = "
                         f"{rebate_kpi_info['rebate_pct']:.2f}%（政策常量 {POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT:.2f}% 仅供对照；"
                         f"⑤ 后不再充当变动成本率）")
    else:
        rebate_remark = f"{cal['name']}无渠补科目（实测渠补率不适用）；变动成本率见 F_BEP_VC_RATE"
    batch = f"bep-{datetime.now().strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}"
    written = {}
    changed = []
    if write_kpi:
        for code, _ in TARGET_KPIS:
            kpi = kpis.get(code)
            if kpi is None:
                written[code] = "no-definition"
                continue
            if code == VC_RATE_KPI:
                new_val = round(float(rebate_pct), 2)   # 变动成本率可测 ⇒ 照常落库
                rm = vc_rate_remark
            elif code == REBATE_KPI:
                new_val = (round(float(rebate_kpi_info["rebate_pct"]), 2)
                           if rebate_kpi_info and rebate_kpi_info.get("available") else None)
                rm = rebate_remark
            else:
                new_val = None
                rm = detail
            existing = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
                KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
                KPIValue.period == period,
                KPIValue.source_type == "derived",
            ).first()
            if existing is None:
                db.add(KPIValue(
                    entity_id=entity_id,
                    kpi_id=kpi.id,
                    period=period,
                    actual_value=new_val,
                    source_type="derived",
                    source_batch=batch,
                    data_status="pending",
                    remark=rm,
                ))
                written[code] = "insert"
            else:
                old_value = float(existing.actual_value) if existing.actual_value is not None else None
                value_changed = ((old_value is None) != (new_val is None)
                                 or (old_value is not None and abs(old_value - float(new_val)) > 1e-9))
                existing.actual_value = new_val
                existing.source_batch = batch
                existing.data_status = "pending"   # 裁定：fail-closed 路径显式 pending
                existing.remark = rm
                if value_changed:
                    changed.append({"code": code, "old": old_value, "new": new_val,
                                    "status": "pending"})
                written[code] = "upsert"
        db.commit()
        _write_value_changed_note(entity_id, period, batch, changed)
    else:
        written = {c: "dry-run" for c, _ in TARGET_KPIS}
    return {
        "entity_id": entity_id,
        "period": period,
        "months": months,
        "data_status": "pending",
        "cm_non_positive": True,
        "reason": detail,
        "rebate_sum_w": rebate_info["rebate_sum_w"],
        "sales_sum_w": rebate_info["sales_sum_w"],
        "rebate_actual_pct": rebate_pct,
        "rebate_policy_pct": POLICY_REBATE_RATE_PCT,
        "rebate_source": rebate_info.get("reason") or cal["margin_desc"],
        "cm_pct": cm_pct,
        "sales_avg": round(sales_avg, 2) if sales_avg is not None else None,
        "admin_avg": round(admin_avg, 2) if admin_avg is not None else None,
        "dep_avg": round(dep_avg, 2) if dep_avg is not None else None,
        "values": {},
        "written": written,
        "value_changed": changed,
    }


def main():
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description="保本点派生KPI执行器")
    ap.add_argument("--period", default=None, help="目标期间 YYYY-MM（默认自动选最近完整月）")
    ap.add_argument("--entity", type=int, default=1, help="entity_id（1=陕西酣客 2=博海）")
    ap.add_argument("--rebate-rate", type=float, default=None,
                    help="变动成本率%%人工覆盖（诊断用；**默认按 YTD 从 voucher_details 实测现算**，不再取政策常量）")
    ap.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true", help="只计算不落库")
    args = ap.parse_args()

    db = get_session_local()()
    try:
        cal = ENTITY_CALIBERS.get(args.entity)
        if cal is None:
            print(f"❌ entity={args.entity} 未注册 BEP 口径（见 ENTITY_CALIBERS）")
            return 2
        period = args.period or _pick_target_period(db, args.entity, date.today(), cal)
        r = run_derive(db, args.entity, period, args.rebate_rate,
                       write_kpi=not args.dry_run)
        print(f"保本点派生计算完成 entity={r['entity_id']}({cal['name']}) period={r['period']} "
              f"(YTD {r['months']}个月) mode={'dry-run' if args.dry_run else 'write'} "
              f"data_status={r['data_status']}")
        if r["data_status"] == "pending":
            kind = "边际贡献非正 ⇒ 保本点不适用" if r.get("cm_non_positive") else "不可得"
            print(f"  ⚠ fail-closed（{kind}）：{r['reason']}")
            if r.get("rebate_actual_pct") is not None:
                print(f"  {cal['margin_label']}(YTD) = {r['rebate_actual_pct']:.2f}% "
                      f"| 边际贡献率 {r.get('cm_pct')}% ⇒ 仅落变动成本率，五条保本值 NULL")
            print(f"  落库: {r['written']}")
            return
        print(f"  销售收入累计 {r['sales_sum_w']:.2f}万 月均 {r['sales_avg']:.2f}万")
        print(f"  固定成本累计 {r['admin_sum_w']:.2f}万 月均 {r['admin_avg']:.2f}万 ({cal['fixed_label']},账面口径)")
        print(f"  折旧累计 {r['dep_sum_w']:.2f}万 月均 {r['dep_avg']:.2f}万 ({cal['dep_filter'][1]}) | "
              f"现金固定成本月均 {r['cash_admin_avg']:.2f}万 (固定成本-折旧)")
        print(f"  变动成本累计 {r['rebate_sum_w']:.2f}万 | {cal['margin_label']}(YTD) {r['rebate_actual_pct']:.2f}% "
              f"({cal['margin_desc']}) | 边际贡献率 {r['cm_pct']:.2f}%")
        print(f"  F_BEP_REVENUE 保本销售额 = {r['values']['F_BEP_REVENUE']} 万元")
        print(f"  F_BEP_COVER   保本覆盖率 = {r['values']['F_BEP_COVER']} %")
        print(f"  F_BEP_GAP     保本缺口   = {r['values']['F_BEP_GAP']} %")
        print(f"  F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH 现金保本销售额 = {r['values']['F_BEP_REVENUE_CASH']} 万元")
        print(f"  F_BEP_COVER_CASH   现金保本覆盖率 = {r['values']['F_BEP_COVER_CASH']} %")
        print(f"  F_BEP_REBATE       {cal['margin_label']} = {r['values']['F_BEP_REBATE']} %")
        print(f"  落库: {r['written']}")
    finally:
        db.close()


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()