feat(h2-forecast): 实测区/预估区口径分离 —— 对外读路径默认只取实测区

- 新增 app/utils/kpi_value_scope.py（口径单一事实源：actual_only_clause / forecast_only_clause / is_forecast_row）
- dashboard.py: /kpis /my-kpis /finance-analysis /predict /my-dashboard / latest_kpi_value 默认剔预估，include_forecast=true 单列返回
- alert_rules.py: 动态阈值白名单去 estimated + 4 处读路径加实测区判据
- 前端 ForecastTag.vue 新增；Dashboard.vue / MyDashboard.vue 预估单列 + 标签（不与实测相加）

Task: finance-20261002-h2-forecast-separation-deploy-fullstack

backend/app/api/alert_rules.py

@@ -18,6 +18,9 @@ from app.utils.oplog import log_op
 # 裁定 R1（2026-09-19 财务口径）：demo 账套不参与预警生成/遍历（单一事实源）
 # 裁定 R5（2026-09-19 财务口径）：期间非规整月 YYYY-MM → 该 kpi_alerts 行不入库（生成侧守卫）
 from app.utils.alert_entity_scope import guard_alert_period, is_excluded_entity
+# 「实测区 / 预估区」分区口径（财务裁定 2026-10-02）：**预估行禁作预警依据**——
+# 本文件的取数读路径一律加 actual_only_clause()，动态阈值白名单去掉 estimated。
+from app.utils.kpi_value_scope import actual_only_clause
 
 logger = logging.getLogger("alert_rules")
 
@@ -317,11 +320,12 @@ def run_all_alert_checks(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int = Depends
                         alerts_generated += 1
                 continue
 
-            # 获取最新值
+            # 获取最新值（仅实测区：预估行禁作预警依据，财务裁定 2026-10-02）
             latest_value = value_cache.get(rule.kpi_id)
             if latest_value is None:
                 latest_value = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
                     KPIValue.kpi_id == rule.kpi_id,
+                    actual_only_clause(),
                 ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).first()
                 if latest_value:
                     value_cache[rule.kpi_id] = latest_value
@@ -410,7 +414,8 @@ def calculate_dynamic_thresholds(db: Session = Depends(get_db), entity_id: int =
         values = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi.id,
             KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
-            KPIValue.data_status.in_(["verified", "estimated"]),
+            # 白名单去掉 estimated（财务裁定 2026-10-02）：预估行不参与动态阈值计算
+            KPIValue.data_status.in_(["verified"]),
             KPIValue.period < current_period,
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).limit(3).all()
         
@@ -521,10 +526,11 @@ def _check_trend(kpi_id: int, value: float, direction: str, params: dict, db: Se
     """趋势检查 — 环比变化"""
     threshold_pct = params.get("threshold_pct", 10)
     
-    # 获取上月值
+    # 获取上月值（仅实测区：伪期间预估行会因字符串序顶掉上月实测值）
     prev_value = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
         KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id,
         KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
+        actual_only_clause(),
     ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc()).offset(1).limit(1).first()
     
     if not prev_value or not prev_value.actual_value or prev_value.actual_value == 0:
@@ -753,9 +759,11 @@ def run_forecast_deviation_check(
             if not log or log.forecast_value is None:
                 continue
             # 该预测期的实际值（同period匹配；兼容 2026-H1 等半年度）
+            # 仅实测区：预估行不得与预测值自比（否则偏差恒 0，预警失效）
             actual = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
                 KPIValue.kpi_id == rule.kpi_id,
                 KPIValue.period == log.period,
+                actual_only_clause(),
             ).order_by(KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
             if not actual or not actual.actual_value:
                 continue
@@ -878,9 +886,11 @@ def _check_customer_concentration(kpi_id: int, params: dict, db: Session, entity
             detail = f"{head}收入占比={share}%（合计{total:.0f}元，{rng[0]}~{rng[1]}：{items}）"
 
     if share is None and source in ("auto", "kpi"):
+        # 仅实测区：预估行禁作预警依据（财务裁定 2026-10-02）
         latest = db.query(KPIValue).filter(
             KPIValue.kpi_id == kpi_id,
             KPIValue.actual_value.isnot(None),
+            actual_only_clause(),
         ).order_by(KPIValue.period.desc(), KPIValue.id.desc()).first()
         if latest:
             share = round(float(latest.actual_value), 2)