Hermes CI Fix
6b6043536a
feat: 预测性成本智能升级 — 历史回归弹性校准 + 预测偏差告警
升级1: 宏观敏感性弹性历史校准
- 内置宏观历史数据(oil/usd/cpi 2026-01~07月度)
- 变化率弹性: 同period匹配KPI历史vs因素历史算弹性
- 合理性校验: |弹性|超出[0.01,0.5]视为噪声回退规则(诚实标注)
升级2: 预测偏差告警闭环
- 新表 kpi_forecast_log(预测历史)+模型KpiForecastLog
- 预测时落库(同KPI同预测期覆盖)
- alert_rules 支持 rule_type=forecast_deviation(threshold_pct)
- POST /alert-rules/run-forecast-deviation: 预测vs实际偏差>阈值生成预警(去重, 超2倍阈值红色)
- 端到端验证: 模拟实际500vs预测399.55→偏差20.1%>5%→红色预警生成
回归: pytest 40 passed(predict+alerts)
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